Big Sky Update: Week 12
January 26, 2026Big Sky Teams Face Diverging Trends Heading into Week 12
The Big Sky conference enters its final weeks of regular season play, with teams exhibiting distinct trending patterns as observed through MACD indicators. This analysis delves into the top offensive and defensive trends for each team, providing insight into their momentum heading into the stretch.
Offensive Trends: Declines Emerge in Key Areas
Idaho’s Off Reb Pct has seen a significant decline, indicating challenges in securing second-chance opportunities on offense. Conversely, Northern Arizona’s shooting percentage has shown improvement, trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends: Strengths and Struggles
Eastern Washington and Idaho have both demonstrated improved defensive prowess, as evidenced by their opponents’ declining shooting percentages. However, Idaho State’s defensive turnover numbers have worsened, highlighting a potential vulnerability for the team. Northern Arizona’s defense has struggled in two key areas: its opponents’ shooting percentage has increased, while its Def Reb Pct has declined.
Taking Stock: Momentum Shifts Ahead
As teams navigate the final stretch of the regular season, these trends will undoubtedly play a significant role in determining their trajectories. The MACD indicator measures the magnitude of momentum changes, indicating whether a team’s trend is accelerating or decelerating. Idaho and Idaho State must regroup to address their rebounding woes, while Northern Arizona’s shooting surge may provide a much-needed boost.
Eastern Washington’s defensive improvement will be crucial in maintaining its momentum heading into the playoffs. Meanwhile, Idaho State’s turnover issues and Northern Arizona’s defensive struggles will require attention to overcome.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Montana, Montana State, N Arizona, Portland State, Weber State
- Trending Down (Efficiency): E Washington, Idaho, Idaho State, N Colorado, Sacramento St
Team-by-Team Analysis
E Washington
Record: 5-15 | Elo: 1393.1 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.10 (ranked 283 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Idaho
Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1454.1 (ranked 245 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.76 (ranked 203 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Idaho State
Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1438.1 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.95 (ranked 231 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Montana
Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1563.7 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.81 (ranked 191 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Montana State
Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1523.0 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.10 (ranked 160 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
N Arizona
Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1383.9 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.52 (ranked 332 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
N Colorado
Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1508.3 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.18 (ranked 224 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Portland State
Record: 13-5 | Elo: 1542.6 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.85 (ranked 180 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Sacramento St
Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1321.2 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.33 (ranked 318 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Weber State
Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1430.1 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.76 (ranked 219 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Big Sky Conference Recap: Week 12
As we analyze the Big Sky Conference for Week 12, several key trends have emerged in both offense and defense. By examining the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, which gauge momentum by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages of a team’s performance metrics, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum.
Offensive Trends to Highlight
Rebound efficiency has been an issue for Idaho this season. Their Off-Rebound Percentage (ORB%), which measures the percentage of available rebounds secured by a team, is trending down at 0.235, compared to their season average of 0.268. This decline in rebounding efficiency is a significant factor contributing to Idaho’s struggles on the court.
Conversely, Northern Arizona’s shooting efficiency has improved significantly, with an overall Shooting Percentage (SP) of 0.511 for the season. This uptick in scoring ability has been a key factor in their recent success.
Meanwhile, Idaho State and Montana have also seen their rebounding efficiency worsen this season. Idaho State’s ORB% is trending down at 0.272, while Montana’s is at 0.232, both of which are below their respective season averages of 0.319 and 0.295.
Defensive Trends to Highlight
Eastern Washington’s defense has shown significant improvement, with an Opponent Shooting Efficiency (OSE) trend that is down compared to their season average of 0.566. This increased defensive efficiency has been a crucial factor in their recent success.
Idaho’s defensive performance has also seen an uptick, with their opponents’ shooting percentage trending down from their season average of 0.517. However, this improvement may be short-lived if not sustained by consistent defensive efforts.
In contrast, Northern Arizona’s defense has struggled this season, with an Opponent Shooting Efficiency trend that is up compared to their season average of 0.556. This decline in defensive performance has been a significant contributor to their recent struggles.
Additionally, Idaho State’s turnover rate has increased, with their opponents taking advantage of their mistake-prone play. Monitoring these key metrics will be essential for coaches and fans to make informed decisions about team performance and strategy as the season progresses.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
