Coastal Update: Week 12

Coastal Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

HoopSci.com Analysis: Coastal Conference Trends in Week 12

To analyze trends in the Coastal Conference, we utilize various metrics, including Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). MACD is a momentum indicator that measures the difference between two moving averages of a team’s shooting efficiency. A positive value indicates an upward trend, while a negative value signals a downward trend.

Offensive Trends to Watch

  • Charleston stands out with its improving shooting average, currently at 0.52 (upward MACD). This trend is consistent, indicating a steady increase in accuracy from the field.
  • Drexel’s shooting efficiency has seen a downturn, averaging 0.44 (downward MACD).
  • Hofstra is trending upwards in terms of turnover prevention, averaging 0.149 per game (upward MACD).
  • Elon’s mixed bag of trends may suggest some inconsistency in their performance this week.

Defensive Trends to Watch

  • Drexel’s defense has seen a downturn in rebounding efficiency, with an off-rebound percentage of 0.302 (downward MACD). This trend suggests they may struggle to secure crucial rebounds down the stretch.
  • Hofstra’s opponents have seen an increase in shooting efficiency against them, with a season average of 0.49.

Key Takeaways

  • Charleston’s improved shooting is a positive sign for the team, but they must address rising turnover issues (upward MACD).
  • Drexel’s drop in defensive rebounding could impact their ability to secure wins.
  • Hofstra’s improved turnovers are a welcome change, yet they struggle with opponent efficiency.
  • Elon’s performance is uncertain due to mixed trend lines.

Our analysis highlights areas where teams can improve and potentially gain an edge in the Colonial Conference standings.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1453.4 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.90 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Charleston

Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1602.0 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.99 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Drexel

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1496.3 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.59 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Elon

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1480.1 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.43 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Hampton

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1448.6 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.63 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Hofstra

Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1530.3 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.35 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Monmouth

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1480.4 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.26 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

NC A&T

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1378.8 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.35 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Northeastern

Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1436.6 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.55 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Stony Brook

Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1455.8 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.93 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Towson

Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1564.6 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.96 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 18-3 | Elo: 1661.7 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.26 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

William & Mary

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1533.0 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.65 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Colonial Basketball Analysis: Week 12 Review

As the Colonial basketball season enters its final stretch, our analysis of key trends reveals both positive and negative developments for top teams.

Offensive Trends to Highlight

Charleston’s shooting has shown a notable increase in performance, with their season average rising. Conversely, Charleston’s turnover numbers have worsened, suggesting increased mistakes and potential scoring opportunities for opponents.

Meanwhile, Drexel and Elon have both seen declines in their offensive rebound percentages, indicating that they are failing to secure second-chance opportunities on the glass.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

Drexel’s defensive prowess has improved, with a decrease in opponent shooting percentage. This trend suggests that Drexel is doing a better job of contesting shots and limiting scoring opportunities for opponents. Elon, too, has seen an uptick in opponent turnovers, implying increased pressure on opposing teams.

However, Elon’s defense has declined in terms of rebounding efficiency, allowing opponents to grab more boards.

Takeaways and Momentum

The top trends from our analysis are highlighted below. The MACD momentum indicator will continue to play a crucial role in determining which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable trends. As the season winds down, these trendlines will provide valuable insight into potential playoff contenders.

The top offenses based on our internal scores for Week 12 are:

  1. Charleston
  2. Drexel
  3. Elon

The top defenses based on our internal scores for Week 12 are:

  1. Drexel
  2. Elon

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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