Horizon Update: Week 12
January 26, 2026Horizon League Teams Show Diverse Trends Heading into Week 12
As we enter Week 12 of the Horizon League season, our analysis reveals that teams are experiencing varying trends in key areas such as offense and defense. By examining Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, which measure momentum by identifying divergences between short-term and long-term moving averages, we can gain insight not only into a team’s current standing but also its momentum heading forward.
Offensive Trends
Three teams stand out for their improvements on the offensive side of the ball: Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, and Green Bay. All three have seen significant upticks in shooting percentage, with Cleveland State boasting an average of 0.54 (trending up strongly) and Green Bay averaging 0.55 (also trending up strongly). Detroit Mercy’s shooting percentage has improved to 0.48 (up strongly as well).
However, it is worth noting that these gains come at the expense of other areas for Cleveland State. The team’s off-rebound percentage has decreased to 0.248 (down strongly), indicating a decline in their ability to secure second-chance opportunities.
Defensive Trends
On the defensive side, several teams are experiencing concerning trends. Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy are both struggling with opponent turnovers, averaging 0.136 and 0.134 respectively, with both trends down strongly. This suggests that these teams may be allowing opponents to maintain possession for longer periods of time.
Youngstown State is also a team to watch on defense, as their opponents’ shooting percentage has increased to 0.52 (up strongly), indicating a potential decline in defensive prowess.
Insights and Takeaways
While the Horizon League season is far from over, these trends provide valuable insights into each team’s momentum. As we head into Week 12, teams will need to address their weaknesses if they hope to make a late-season push.
For Cleveland State, improving their off-rebound percentage will be crucial in maintaining their current position. Meanwhile, Detroit Mercy and Green Bay must continue to capitalize on their strong shooting percentages to stay competitive.
In the defensive category, Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, and Youngstown State will need to shore up their weaknesses if they hope to turn their seasons around.
By examining these trends through the lens of MACD indicators, we can better understand where each team stands and where they’re headed. As the season winds down, these insights will become increasingly valuable for teams looking to make a deep run in the Horizon League tournament.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, Green Bay, IUPUI, N Kentucky
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Milwaukee, Wright State, Youngstown St
Team-by-Team Analysis
Cleveland State
Record: 7-14 | Elo: 1451.4 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.37 (ranked 286 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Detroit Mercy
Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1354.4 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.78 (ranked 256 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Green Bay
Record: 12-10 | Elo: 1430.0 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.15 (ranked 205 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
IUPUI
Record: 6-16 | Elo: 1304.3 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.08 (ranked 316 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Milwaukee
Record: 9-13 | Elo: 1497.0 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.13 (ranked 232 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
N Kentucky
Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1516.9 (ranked 158 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.84 (ranked 179 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Oakland
Record: 11-10 | Elo: 1548.4 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.76 (ranked 168 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Purdue Fort Wayne
Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1543.6 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.73 (ranked 217 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Robert Morris
Record: 12-9 | Elo: 1533.6 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.57 (ranked 197 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Wright State
Record: 13-8 | Elo: 1504.0 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.16 (ranked 134 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Youngstown St
Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1471.6 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.91 (ranked 198 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Horizon League Teams Show Contrasting Trends as Season Winds Down
As Week 12 comes to a close, the Horizon League’s top performers are revealing themselves through their statistical trends. While some teams are making strides on both ends of the court, others are struggling to maintain momentum.
On offense, three teams stand out for their improved shooting percentages. Cleveland State and Detroit Mercy, with Season Averages of 0.54 and 0.48 respectively, have seen their shooting trends trend upwards strongly. Meanwhile, Green Bay, boasting a 0.55 Season Average, has also seen an uptick in its shooting performance.
However, Cleveland State’s offensive rebound percentage (Off Reb Pct) is trending downwards, indicating a decline in this critical area.
On the defensive side of the ball, three teams are struggling with their opponents’ turnovers. Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, and Oakland have all seen their opponents turn the ball over less frequently, suggesting that these teams may be facing challenges in forcing takeaways.
Furthermore, Oakland is experiencing a decline in its defensive rebounding percentage (Def Reb Pct), which could put additional pressure on its defense in the coming weeks.
The Shooting Efficiency Momentum indicators provide valuable insight into each team’s momentum. These metrics offer a snapshot of how teams are trending in terms of shooting efficiency, and will continue to be monitored as the season unfolds. As we enter the final stretch, these trends will help identify which teams are genuinely improving and which ones may be due for a correction.
We’ll be back next week with an updated analysis of the Horizon League’s key trends.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
