MEAC Update: Week 12
January 26, 2026MEAC Teams Display Diverse Performance Trends Ahead of Week 12
The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) heads into Week 12 with teams exhibiting distinct performance trends. By analyzing various metrics, including team turnover rates and shooting percentages, we can identify which teams are on an upward or downward trajectory.
Offensive Trends: A Closer Look at the Numbers
Coppin State’s offense has experienced a notable increase in turnovers (Season Avg: 0.216), suggesting a decline in team performance. Conversely, Coppin State’s Offense Rebounding Percentage has seen an improvement, indicating that their offense is becoming more effective on the glass.
Morgan State joins Coppin State in exhibiting an uptick in Offense Rebounding Percentage (Season Avg: 0.268), suggesting that their offense is improving in this area. Meanwhile, Norfolk State’s shooting percentages have shown a significant improvement, with a strong upward trend (Season Avg: 0.49).
Howard’s shooting percentages have taken a hit, reflecting a downward trend (Season Avg: 0.47). This decline could impact their ability to score effectively in games.
Defensive Trends: Where Teams Stand
Coppin State’s defense has struggled with an uptrend in opponent shooting percentages (Season Avg: 0.59), indicating a worsening trend for the team. In contrast, Howard’s defensive efforts have shown promise, as they’ve experienced a decrease in opponent shooting percentages (Season Avg: 0.5) and an increase in opponent turnovers (Season Avg: 0.201).
MD-E Shore has demonstrated improvement on defense with regards to limiting opponent turnovers (Season Avg: 0.165). However, their Defensive Rebounding Percentage has taken a hit, suggesting that they may struggle to secure rebounds on the defensive end.
What These Trends Mean for MEAC Teams
As we head into Week 12, these trends provide valuable insight into each team’s strengths and weaknesses. Coppin State’s inability to limit turnovers will be crucial to address if they hope to turn their season around. Meanwhile, teams like Norfolk State and Howard are showing promising signs on the offensive end.
MD-E Shore faces a conundrum with their defensive rebounding percentage taking a hit while improving in limiting opponent turnovers. It remains to be seen how these trends will impact each team’s performance as the MEAC heads into its final weeks of play.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Coppin State, MD-E Shore, Morgan State, Norfolk State, NC Central
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Delaware State, Howard
Team-by-Team Analysis
Coppin State
Record: 3-19 | Elo: 1272.6 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.85 (ranked 363 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Delaware State
Record: 5-14 | Elo: 1355.4 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.80 (ranked 352 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Howard
Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1440.3 (ranked 263 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.07 (ranked 237 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
MD-E Shore
Record: 8-13 | Elo: 1352.0 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.38 (ranked 309 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Morgan State
Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1363.1 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.11 (ranked 360 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
NC Central
Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1392.2 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.02 (ranked 338 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Norfolk State
Record: 10-12 | Elo: 1498.5 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.08 (ranked 292 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
S Carolina St
Record: 3-16 | Elo: 1395.5 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.43 (ranked 361 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
MEAC Teams’ Performance: Key Trends from Week 12 Analysis
As the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) teams continue their season, our analysis aims to identify which teams are genuinely improving and which are riding unsustainable momentum. Below, we highlight the key trends in offense and defense for Coppin State, Howard, and Morgan State.
Offensive Trends
Coppin State’s performance on both ends of the court has been a subject of interest. Their turnover rate is trending up (Trend: Up), indicating a decline in efficiency. However, their offensive rebounding percentage is improving (Trend: Up), suggesting they are capitalizing on second-chance opportunities.
Howard’s shooting has been a concern, with their season average trending down (Trend: Down). Morgan State is also showing signs of improvement on the glass, with their offensive rebounding percentage increasing (Trend: Up).
Defensive Trends
On the defensive side, Coppin State’s opponents are shooting at a higher rate than their season average (Trend: Up), signaling a decline in defense. Howard is bucking this trend with improvements in both opponent shooting and turnovers. Their opponents’ shooting percentage is trending down (Trend: Down), indicating an improvement in their defensive performance.
MD-E Shore also boasts strong defensive trends, with their opponents committing more turnovers than their season average (Trend: Up).
These key trends provide insight into the teams’ performances. Next week’s analysis will update these indicators and continue to monitor team momentum.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
