Mountain West Update: Week 12
January 26, 2026Mountain West Teams Show Diverse Trends Ahead of Week 12
The Mountain West conference enters Week 12 with its teams exhibiting distinct performance trends. This analysis uses a momentum indicator, specifically Shooting Efficiency Momentum (SEM), to evaluate each team’s scoring efficiency and provide insight into their current standing.
Offensive Trends
Several teams are showing improvements on the offensive end, while others face challenges. Notably:
- Boise State is trending up strongly in shooting, indicating an improvement in their ability to score.
- Colorado State’s turnover rate has increased, potentially affecting their offense.
- Air Force is experiencing a worsening off-rebound percentage, which could impact their scoring efficiency.
Defensive Trends
The conference’s defensive units are also displaying varying trends. Notably:
- Fresno State’s opponent shooting average has decreased, suggesting an improvement in their defense.
- Air Force is facing difficulties on the defensive end, with a worsening opponent shooting and rebounding percentage.
- Nevada’s opponents have increased their turnover rate against them, potentially indicating a decline in their defense.
These SEM trends offer a snapshot of each team’s momentum, highlighting areas where they can build upon their strengths or address weaknesses. As the Mountain West conference approaches Week 12, these insights will be crucial for understanding the teams’ positioning and prospects moving forward.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Boise State, Nevada, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Air Force, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Jose State, Utah State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Air Force
Record: 3-17 | Elo: 1294.8 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.23 (ranked 348 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Boise State
Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1627.3 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.62 (ranked 86 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Colorado State
Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1612.9 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.27 (ranked 90 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Fresno State
Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1409.5 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.48 (ranked 196 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Grand Canyon
Record: 12-6 | Elo: 1647.1 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.72 (ranked 93 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Nevada
Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1602.6 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.85 (ranked 78 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
New Mexico
Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1688.5 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.07 (ranked 64 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
San Diego State
Record: 14-4 | Elo: 1670.7 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.04 (ranked 70 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
San Jose State
Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1404.5 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.68 (ranked 254 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
UNLV
Record: 10-9 | Elo: 1557.3 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.08 (ranked 115 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Utah State
Record: 16-3 | Elo: 1701.2 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.55 (ranked 30 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Wyoming
Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1475.8 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.58 (ranked 106 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Mountain West Teams’ Week 12 Analysis
As the Mountain West teams conclude their 12th week of competition, we examine key trends that may influence their future performances.
On the offensive front, Boise State’s shooting has improved significantly, with a trend upward in their season average. The Broncos have seen an increase in points scored per game and three-pointers made, which could translate to more scoring opportunities. Conversely, Air Force’s rebounding efficiency is declining, which may hinder their ability to score efficiently.
Meanwhile, on defense, Fresno State has shown an uptick in their opponents’ shooting rates, suggesting they may be allowing more open looks than usual. A closer examination of the data reveals that this trend is largely due to increased three-point attempts allowed by the Bulldogs. Air Force’s defensive performance has worsened across several metrics: their opponents are shooting at a higher rate, turning the ball over less frequently, and grabbing rebounds at a greater percentage.
Boise State is also worth monitoring on the defensive end, where their turnover totals have decreased, implying a better ability to disrupt opposing offenses. Colorado State has seen an improvement in their opponents’ turnover rates, which could be indicative of better defense by the Rams.
The numbers indicate that these teams’ performances will be crucial in determining their overall standing within the conference.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
