Northeast Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

Northeast Conference Teams Show Varied Trends in Week 12

The Northeast Conference enters its 12th week with teams exhibiting distinct trends, according to Mean Absolute Change Direction (MACD) indicators. This analysis examines the performance of each team, highlighting where they stand and where they’re headed.

Offensive Trends

Brooklyn’s impressive trend is a notable improvement in turnovers, averaging 0.186 per game this season and trending downward strongly. With a strong momentum indicator, Brooklyn’s ability to minimize mistakes could lead to increased scoring opportunities.

St Francis (PA) also shows a significant decline in turnovers, with an average of 0.164 per game and a strongly trending downward pattern. This improvement is a crucial aspect of their offense, as they look to capitalize on opponent errors.

However, St Francis (PA) faces a contrasting trend in offensive rebounding percentage, which has declined to 0.225 this season. A weakening performance in securing second-chance opportunities could hinder their scoring output.

Wagner’s shooting percentage has improved significantly, rising to 0.51 this season and trending upward strongly. This increase in efficiency from beyond the arc or inside the paint will be crucial for Wagner as they seek to outscore opponents.

Stonehill’s turnover trend is worrisome, with an average of 0.202 per game and a strongly trending upward pattern. As turnovers mount, Stonehill’s scoring potential may suffer, making it challenging to compete effectively.

Defensive Trends

Cent Conn St faces concerns on the defensive side, particularly in opponent shooting percentage, which has risen to 0.52 this season and is trending upward strongly. This decline in defensive prowess will require Cent Conn St to adapt and find ways to limit scoring opportunities for their opponents.

Additionally, Cent Conn St’s defensive rebounding percentage has decreased to 0.7 this season, while its trend is also downward. A weakening performance on the glass could lead to more possessions for opponents, putting pressure on Cent Conn St’s defense.

St Francis (PA) sees an improvement in limiting turnovers by their opponents, with an average of 0.179 per game and a strongly trending upward pattern. By forcing more mistakes from opponents, St Francis (PA) may be able to create scoring opportunities and protect its own lead.

Stonehill’s defensive performance is notable for a decrease in opponent shooting percentage, which has dropped to 0.5 this season. This improvement could help Stonehill limit scoring chances for its opponents and maintain competitive games.

By examining these trends through the lens of MACD indicators, we gain insight into the complex dynamics at play within the Northeast Conference. As teams navigate their way through the remainder of the season, understanding these shifts will be essential in predicting future performances and outcomes.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Cent Conn St, Fair Dickinson, St Francis (PA), Wagner, Stonehill
Trending Down (Efficiency): Brooklyn, Le Moyne, Chicago State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 12-8 | Elo: 1490.5 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.65 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Cent Conn St

Record: 10-8 | Elo: 1529.4 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.15 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Chicago State

Record: 2-19 | Elo: 1267.7 (ranked 368 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.75 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 7-13 | Elo: 1383.0 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.72 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Le Moyne

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1421.9 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.55 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Mercyhurst

Record: 10-11 | Elo: 1455.5 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.71 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

New Haven

Record: 9-11 | Elo: 1474.2 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.04 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 6-14 | Elo: 1381.2 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.93 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Stonehill

Record: 5-14 | Elo: 1362.5 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.90 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wagner

Record: 4-11 | Elo: 1374.7 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.70 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Northeast Teams’ Week 12 Analysis

The Northeast continues to showcase its competitiveness in college basketball, with several teams displaying notable trends. Our analysis highlights key offensive and defensive metrics that reveal areas of improvement and decline.

Offensive Bright Spots

Brooklyn and St Francis (PA) have made significant strides in reducing turnovers, a crucial aspect of their offenses. Brooklyn’s trend is particularly noteworthy, with a strongly improving turnover rate, scoring an 8 on our internal prioritization metric. This improvement should translate to more efficient offense for the team.

St Francis (PA) has also excelled in this area, boasting a strong turnaround in turnover rate and maintaining an impressive pace in rebounding efficiency. However, their offense rebound percentage has seen a decline, which we will continue to monitor as it may impact their scoring opportunities.

Wagner’s shooting has shown a significant uptick, trending upward strongly throughout the season. This development could be crucial for their overall performance, as it often correlates with increased scoring opportunities.

Defensive Concerns

Cent Conn St has faced difficulties on defense, particularly in allowing opponents to shoot at an increasingly higher rate and capitalize on turnovers. Their defensive rebound percentage has also declined significantly.

St Francis (PA) has actually shown improvement in turnover defense, reducing the number of turnovers allowed compared to their season average. This trend indicates a positive shift for their defensive strategy.

A Closer Look

These trends paint a nuanced picture of teams navigating the complexities of momentum and improvement. Brooklyn’s strong turnaround in turnover rate highlights their ability to adapt and grow. Wagner’s shooting surge could be a crucial factor in determining their team’s trajectory.

However, Cent Conn St’s struggles on both sides of the ball raise questions about their overall performance. As we continue to analyze these teams, it will be essential to observe how they respond to these trends.

Northeast Teams: Where Momentum Meets Reality

To provide further insight into the season’s progression, our next update will incorporate momentum indicators related to shooting efficiency, such as the Adjusted Field Goal Percentage (AFGP) metric. This analysis will offer a more comprehensive understanding of the teams’ progress and how they adapt to these trends.

Note: AFGP is used as an example of a relevant momentum indicator, but specific metrics or terminology can be adjusted according to editorial preferences.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC

TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference