SEC Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

SEC Teams Show Diverse Performance Trends in Week 12

As we enter Week 12 of college basketball, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) showcases a mix of trending patterns among its teams. This analysis examines each team’s performance using Moving Average Convergence Divergence momentum indicators to identify not just their current standing but also where they’re headed.

Offensive Trends

Alabama: The Crimson Tide’s shooting has been a concern, with a season average of 0.55 and a downward trend. Their turnovers have seen an improvement, however, with a season average of 0.122 and a strong downward trend.
Arkansas: The Razorbacks’ shooting is on the rise, boasting a season average of 0.57 and a strongly upward trend. This uptick in performance suggests a potential increase in scoring opportunities for the team.
Auburn: Auburn’s offense has seen improvements in both areas: turnovers (season average of 0.14 with a strong downward trend) and offensive rebound percentage (0.43 with a strong upward trend). These trends indicate better ball control and second-chance scoring.
Florida: The Gators have shown improvement in two key areas: turnovers (season average of 0.157 with a strong downward trend) and offensive rebound percentage (0.431 with a strong upward trend).
LSU: LSU’s offense has seen improvements, particularly in terms of shooting (season average of 0.54 with a strongly upward trend). This uptick in performance suggests a potential increase in scoring opportunities for the team.

Defensive Trends

Alabama: Defensively, the Crimson Tide’s defensive rebounding percentage has declined, standing at 0.693 with a strongly downward trend.
Florida: The Gators have struggled on defense, particularly in terms of opponent shooting (season average of 0.47 with a strong upward trend). This uptick in opponent scoring efficiency suggests a potential decline in the team’s defensive prowess.
Georgia: Similar to Florida, Georgia has seen its opponent shooting percentage rise, standing at 0.47 with a strongly upward trend. Defensively, they’ve struggled with rebounding as well, posting a 0.68599% rate with a strongly downward trend.
Kentucky: The Wildcats’ defensive rebounding percentage has also declined, averaging 0.74 with a strong downward trend.

These trends provide valuable insights into the current state of each SEC team’s performance. By examining these metrics, coaches and fans can better understand where their teams are headed in Week 12 and beyond.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Texas
Trending Down (Efficiency): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1714.9 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.31 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 15-5 | Elo: 1655.0 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.18 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1724.3 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.77 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Florida

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1738.2 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.62 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1632.0 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.56 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1665.3 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.23 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

LSU

Record: 13-7 | Elo: 1536.9 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.07 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 10-10 | Elo: 1563.7 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.60 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Missouri

Record: 14-6 | Elo: 1589.1 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.79 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Oklahoma

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1558.6 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.21 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1590.4 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.33 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 11-9 | Elo: 1510.4 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.58 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 13-6 | Elo: 1700.8 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.38 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Texas

Record: 11-8 | Elo: 1579.3 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.43 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Texas A&M

Record: 16-4 | Elo: 1677.4 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.81 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 17-3 | Elo: 1658.1 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.19 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SEC Teams Face Crucial Week Amid Shifts in Key Metrics

The Southeastern Conference (SEC) has reached the midpoint of its season, with several teams showcasing notable trends that could significantly impact their playoff prospects. As we delve into the numbers, it’s essential to acknowledge that momentum can be fleeting, and genuine improvement requires sustained excellence.

Offensive Trends

Alabama’s shooting percentage has declined, dropping from a season average of 0.55 to a current rate of 0.46. This significant drop-off in their offense is likely contributing to their recent struggles. On the other hand, the Crimson Tide have improved their turnover margin, reducing turnovers per game by 0.017.

Arkansas has bucked this trend, exhibiting an uptick in shooting percentage. Their season average now stands at 0.57, representing a substantial increase from earlier in the season.

In the realm of turnovers, Florida has also shown significant improvement, reducing its turnover rate per game by 0.033.

Defensive Trends

Alabama’s defensive rebounding percentage has taken a hit, dropping from a season average of 0.693 to a current rate of 0.672. This decline in their ability to secure rebounds on defense is likely impacting their overall performance.

Florida and Georgia both face concerning trends on the defensive end. The Gators’ opponents have seen an uptick in shooting percentage against them, rising from a season average of 0.47 to a current rate of 0.50. Similarly, Georgia’s opponents are experiencing similar success, with an increase in shooting percentage from 0.47 to 0.49.

Furthermore, both teams struggle with defensive rebounding, as evident from their declining percentages. Florida currently stands at 0.672, while Georgia trails behind at 0.665.

These trends underscore the importance of sustained improvement in key areas, rather than relying on fleeting momentum. As the season progresses, teams must continue to build on their strengths and address weaknesses to secure a spot in the playoffs.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC

TagsSEC Southeastern Conference