SWAC Update: Week 12

January 26, 2026 0 By Neill White

SWAC Teams Show Diverse Trend Patterns in Week 12

As we enter Week 12 of the SWAC season, analysis of Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators reveals distinct trending patterns for each team. This examination highlights both positive and negative developments, providing insight into which teams are on the rise or decline.

What is MACD?
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a momentum indicator that calculates the difference between two moving averages to signal potential price movements. It helps identify trends and changes in momentum by analyzing the rate of change in prices.

Offensive Trends: Where Improvements Lie

Notable offensive trends include:

Alabama A&M: Shooting has improved significantly, with a strong upward trend. This suggests that the Bulldogs are becoming more efficient in converting shots.
Alabama State: The Hornets’ shooting also shows an upward trend, indicating an increase in scoring opportunities.
Grambling: In contrast, turnovers have increased substantially for the Tigers, which could impact their overall performance.

Defensive Trends: Where Improvements Can Be Made

On the defensive side:

Miss Valley St: The Delta Devils’ improvement in forcing turnovers is a positive sign, as they become more effective at disrupting opponents.
Texas Southern: The Jaguars’ defense has seen an uptick in allowing shots, but their rebounding percentage has improved significantly, which could be a key factor in their overall defensive performance.

The data-driven analysis provides a comprehensive picture of the SWAC teams’ strengths and weaknesses heading into Week 12. By examining these trends, coaches and fans can gain valuable insights to inform their strategies and expectations.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: January 19 – January 25, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Alabama A&M, Alabama State, AR-Pine Bluff, PV A&M, Texas Southern
Trending Down (Efficiency): Alcorn State, Grambling, Jackson State, Miss Valley St, Southern

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 5-13 | Elo: 1331.0 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.78 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Alabama A&M

Record: 10-9 | Elo: 1376.8 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.27 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Alabama State

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1428.4 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.52 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Alcorn State

Record: 3-15 | Elo: 1398.1 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.25 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 8-11 | Elo: 1472.3 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.40 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Florida A&M

Record: 6-9 | Elo: 1419.0 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.94 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Grambling

Record: 8-10 | Elo: 1418.1 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.57 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Jackson State

Record: 5-14 | Elo: 1447.7 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -34.83 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Miss Valley St

Record: 1-19 | Elo: 1178.3 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -41.69 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

PV A&M

Record: 8-12 | Elo: 1317.2 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.36 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern

Record: 7-12 | Elo: 1456.4 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.05 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas Southern

Record: 4-13 | Elo: 1397.0 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.09 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SWAC Week 12 Analysis: Teams Riding Momentum, Those Showing Decline

As the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) continues its season, several teams are showcasing notable trends in key areas of their game. With momentum indicators pointing to genuine improvements and declines, we’ll break down the top trends to highlight.

Offensive Trends

Alabama A&M’s shooting has been a bright spot this season, with a significant upward trend. Their season average is 0.48, which is increasing strongly. This improvement could lead to more scoring opportunities for the team. On the other hand, their off-rebound percentage (ORP) has been trending downward, indicating a decline in their ability to secure second-chance points.

Alabama State’s offense has also seen an uptick in shooting, with a season average of 0.49 and a strongly upward trend. However, their turnover rate is increasing, which could lead to more possessions for opposing teams.

Defensive Trends

On the defensive side, Alabama A&M’s opponents have been converting turnovers into points at a higher rate, indicating a decline in their ability to protect the ball. This could be a concern for the team moving forward.

Grambling’s defense has struggled against shooting, with a season average of 0.53 and an upward trend. This means that opposing teams are scoring more efficiently, putting pressure on Grambling’s offense to keep pace.

Miss Valley St’s defense has shown improvement in forcing turnovers, which could be a key factor in their success moving forward.

Momentum Indicators

While the data highlights areas of improvement and decline, it’s essential to consider momentum indicators like Shooting Efficiency Momentum (SEM), which helps identify sustainable trends. SEM measures the rate at which teams improve or decline in shooting efficiency over time.

Next week, we’ll provide an updated analysis incorporating fresh data and further insights. For now, these trends offer valuable context for teams looking to capitalize on their strengths and address weaknesses.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC

TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC