Atlantic Sun Update: Week 14

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1541.5 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.80 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Bellarmine

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1376.1 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.62 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1447.1 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.92 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1438.2 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.79 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

FGCU

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1447.4 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.07 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Jacksonville

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1426.5 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.51 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1556.8 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.19 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 7-15 | Elo: 1449.5 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.33 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

North Florida

Record: 6-19 | Elo: 1371.0 (ranked 332 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.31 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Queens University

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1510.7 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.81 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Stetson

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1360.0 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.57 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1379.9 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.93 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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