Big Sky Update: Week 14

Big Sky Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big Sky enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Washington

Record: 7-17 | Elo: 1413.5 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.39 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Idaho

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1448.4 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.61 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Idaho State

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1402.5 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.94 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Montana

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1550.3 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.91 (ranked 203 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Montana State

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1494.1 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.38 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

N Arizona

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1387.5 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.12 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

N Colorado

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1538.1 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.32 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Portland State

Record: 16-6 | Elo: 1549.3 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.66 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Sacramento St

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1350.0 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.90 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Weber State

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1424.1 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.43 (ranked 246 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big Sky teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSC
TagsBig Sky Big Sky Conference BSC

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