Big South Update: Week 14

Big South Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1379.1 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.90 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 3-22 | Elo: 1321.2 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -39.88 (ranked 364 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

High Point

Record: 22-4 | Elo: 1657.5 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.14 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Longwood

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1463.1 (ranked 234 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.14 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Presbyterian

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1412.2 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.44 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Radford

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1481.2 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.81 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UNC Asheville

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1492.6 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.03 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

USC Upstate

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1361.7 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.87 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Winthrop

Record: 18-8 | Elo: 1587.5 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.68 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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