Mountain West Update: Week 14

Mountain West Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Mountain West enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-20 | Elo: 1280.8 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.45 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1648.0 (ranked 46 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.13 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Colorado State

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1599.2 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.13 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1428.5 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.50 (ranked 176 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 14-8 | Elo: 1636.7 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.30 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 17-7 | Elo: 1613.1 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.71 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

New Mexico

Record: 18-6 | Elo: 1675.6 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.75 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 17-5 | Elo: 1676.4 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.84 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

San Jose State

Record: 6-17 | Elo: 1390.1 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.89 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1542.4 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.72 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Utah State

Record: 20-3 | Elo: 1729.1 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.39 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Wyoming

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1474.8 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.65 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mountain West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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