Northeast Update: Week 14

Northeast Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Northeast enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1520.4 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.81 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cent Conn St

Record: 13-10 | Elo: 1519.4 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.52 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Chicago State

Record: 4-20 | Elo: 1294.7 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.27 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1375.0 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.02 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Le Moyne

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1411.8 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.19 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Mercyhurst

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1446.0 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.24 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

New Haven

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1461.2 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.71 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 6-17 | Elo: 1359.3 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.06 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Stonehill

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1383.0 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.23 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wagner

Record: 6-13 | Elo: 1377.2 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.94 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Northeast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC
TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference

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