Ohio Valley Update: Week 14

Ohio Valley Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Ohio Valley enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ohio Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Illinois

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1382.5 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.68 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lindenwood

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1457.8 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.90 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Little Rock

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1424.4 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.03 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Morehead State

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1473.9 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.67 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

SE Missouri St

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1499.6 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.91 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

SIUE

Record: 16-9 | Elo: 1527.4 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.91 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern Indiana

Record: 5-19 | Elo: 1283.8 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.74 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Tenn Tech

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1377.2 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.40 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tennessee St

Record: 16-8 | Elo: 1514.4 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.74 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UT Martin

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1516.5 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.82 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

W Illinois

Record: 4-21 | Elo: 1296.3 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -34.78 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ohio Valley teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryOVC
TagsOhio Valley Ohio Valley Conference OVC

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