SEC Update: Week 14

SEC Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1732.1 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.99 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Arkansas

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1662.7 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.52 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1707.7 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.01 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Florida

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1762.1 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.80 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1620.7 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.68 (ranked 30 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 17-7 | Elo: 1683.5 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.41 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

LSU

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1526.3 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.65 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1558.3 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.21 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Missouri

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1601.6 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.00 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1548.3 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.73 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 11-12 | Elo: 1574.1 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.05 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 11-13 | Elo: 1476.9 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.58 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1714.9 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.95 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Texas

Record: 14-9 | Elo: 1599.3 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.55 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas A&M

Record: 17-6 | Elo: 1671.2 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.50 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 19-4 | Elo: 1654.9 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.52 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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