Southland Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Incarnate Word, New Orleans, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC, Lamar
Trending Down (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, McNeese, Nicholls, Northwestern St, Texas A&M-Commerce

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1334.7 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.30 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Incarnate Word

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1389.5 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.14 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 12-12 | Elo: 1472.4 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.09 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 19-5 | Elo: 1655.5 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.94 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

New Orleans

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1372.6 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.29 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Nicholls

Record: 10-14 | Elo: 1467.7 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.53 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 6-18 | Elo: 1361.2 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.24 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 7-17 | Elo: 1403.5 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.26 (ranked 317 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

SF Austin

Record: 21-3 | Elo: 1584.7 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.01 (ranked 123 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1483.3 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.18 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1351.7 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.98 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 13-11 | Elo: 1450.1 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.02 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference