Sun Belt Update: Week 14

February 9, 2026 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 14 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 02 – February 08, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Louisiana, South Alabama, Texas State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Ga Southern, Georgia State, Troy, UL Monroe

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 17-9 | Elo: 1551.1 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.56 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1568.3 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.13 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

C. Carolina

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1450.0 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.25 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Ga Southern

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1467.7 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.56 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Georgia State

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1415.6 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.83 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1509.4 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.75 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1438.4 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.43 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1535.0 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.78 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Old Dominion

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1406.5 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.71 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

South Alabama

Record: 16-7 | Elo: 1574.8 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.17 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Southern Miss

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1437.8 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.38 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Texas State

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1496.9 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.05 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Troy

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1610.0 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.38 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 4-21 | Elo: 1256.6 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.36 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference