Big Sky Update: Week 15
February 16, 2026Strongest Offensive Trends
Top Offensive Trends in the Big Sky Conference
The following are the top trends in the Big Sky Conference:
- E Washington’s shooting has shown a marked improvement versus weaker competition, contributing to their scoring efficiency.
- Idaho State’s struggles with shooting have hindered their overall offense versus stronger competition, resulting in a worsening trend that negatively impacts their ability to score effectively.
- Montana’s turnover numbers have worsened versus stronger competition, hindering their ability to sustain momentum and create scoring opportunities.
- Idaho’s rebounding percentage has decreased versus stronger competition, leading to lost scoring chances.
Strongest Defensive Trends
Top Defensive Trends in the Big Sky Conference
As we approach Week 15 of the college basketball season, several teams are showing promising defensive trends. Here’s a look at the top strongest defensive trends:
- Eastern Washington’s Opp Shooting is Improving: Eastern Washington has stiffened its defense, making it increasingly difficult for opponents to find their rhythm versus stronger competition.
- Idaho State: A Struggle Continues on Defense: Unfortunately for Idaho State, its defensive struggles persist as opponents become more confident in their ability to score against the Bengals.
- Montana’s Def Reb Pct is Strong vs Weaker Competition: The Grizzlies have effectively nullified opponents’ advantages in rebounding when facing weaker competition.
- Idaho: Opp Shooting Worsening vs Stronger Teams: Idaho has established itself as a formidable force on defense, consistently performing well versus stronger competition.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big Sky teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: February 09 – February 15, 2026
- Trending Up (Efficiency): E Washington, Idaho, N Arizona, Sacramento St
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Idaho State, Montana, Montana State, N Colorado, Portland State
Team-by-Team Analysis
E Washington
Record: 9-17 | Elo: 1428.1 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.64 (ranked 267 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Idaho
Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1441.1 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.19 (ranked 208 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Idaho State
Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1389.4 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.34 (ranked 281 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Montana
Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1536.1 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.31 (ranked 216 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Montana State
Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1508.3 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.41 (ranked 174 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
N Arizona
Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1385.6 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.94 (ranked 326 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
N Colorado
Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1549.0 (ranked 124 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.42 (ranked 203 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Portland State
Record: 17-7 | Elo: 1549.9 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.84 (ranked 198 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Sacramento St
Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1340.4 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.87 (ranked 300 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Weber State
Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1429.9 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.85 (ranked 253 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
- Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Defensive Trends:
- Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
- Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big Sky teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).
Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
Big Sky Conference Week 15 Review
As we conclude our analysis of the Big Sky teams for Week 15, several key trends emerge that offer valuable insights into each team’s performance.
Offensive Trends to Watch:
- Eastern Washington has seen a notable improvement in their shooting percentage versus weaker competition.
- Idaho State’s shooting percentage is trending down strongly versus stronger competition.
Rebounding Concerns:
- Idaho struggles with rebounding, as their off-rebound percentage is trending downward strongly versus weaker competition.
- Idaho State also faces rebounding issues, with an off-rebound percentage trend down strongly versus stronger competition.
Defensive Trends:
- Eastern Washington has seen a decline in opposition shooting percentage versus weaker competition, trending down strongly.
- The team’s ability to force turnovers has suffered versus stronger competition, as their opponent turnover rate is trending downward strongly versus stronger competition.
- On the other hand, Idaho has shown a struggle on the defensive glass versus weaker competition, with an off-rebound percentage trend down strongly.
Opponent Vulnerabilities:
- Idaho State’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ shooting versus weaker competition.
- Eastern Washington’s ability to limit opponents’ scoring chances is a problem versus stronger competition.
These trends provide valuable insights into the performance of Big Sky teams this week. As we continue to monitor these indicators, we will be able to identify which teams are genuinely improving and which ones may be experiencing unsustainable momentum.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
