MEAC Update: Week 15

MEAC Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Delaware State’s Offense Struggling with Rebounding Efficiency

  • Delaware State’s off reb pct versus weaker competition is a problem, contributing to their defensive struggles.

Morgan State’s Offense Showing Signs of Improvement

  • Morgan State’s shooting percentage is increasing versus stronger competition, which indicates an improvement in their offensive efficiency.
  • Morgan State’s turnover rate versus weaker opponents is decreasing, likely due to better ball control and decision-making on the court.

Norfolk State’s Turnover Issues Plaguing Their Offense

  • Norfolk State’s turnovers versus weaker opponents are worsening, hindering their ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  • Coppin State’s opponents have seen a rise in their shooting efficiency versus weaker competition, which could be a concern for the Eagles’ defense versus stronger competition
  • Howard’s defense has shown improvement in opponent turnover rates versus stronger competition, indicating a positive trend
  • Morgan State’s defense is tightening up as evidenced by the decline in opponents’ shooting efficiency versus weaker teams
  • Norfolk State is struggling to contain their opponents’ scoring average versus stronger competition


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Coppin State

Record: 5-21 | Elo: 1281.1 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.82 (ranked 363 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Delaware State

Record: 6-18 | Elo: 1336.4 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.14 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Howard

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1459.5 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.13 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

MD-E Shore

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1323.0 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.73 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Morgan State

Record: 10-13 | Elo: 1394.6 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.78 (ranked 358 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

NC Central

Record: 9-14 | Elo: 1383.0 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.43 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Norfolk State

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1483.6 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.29 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

S Carolina St

Record: 5-17 | Elo: 1401.3 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.96 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

MEAC Teams Show Promise and Decline in Key Metrics

As we conclude our analysis of Week 15 for the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC), several teams demonstrate notable trends that could influence their prospects moving forward. By examining key offensive and defensive metrics, we can identify which teams are genuinely improving and which may be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Highlight:

  • Delaware State’s performance in securing second-chance opportunities has seen a significant decline versus stronger competition, with its season average of 0.241 worsening over time.
  • MD-E Shore has struggled with an increase in turnovers versus weaker competition, which can be detrimental to their offense. With a season average of 0.214 this trend is becoming more pronounced.

Morgan State demonstrates improvement in several areas, including field goal percentage and turnover prevention, with its shooting showing a notable upward trend versus stronger competition. This could bode well for the team as they continue their campaign.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

  • Coppin State’s performance in limiting opponents’ shooting has improved significantly versus weaker competition, with a notable downward trend in opponents’ field goal percentage.
  • Morgan State’s defense is another bright spot, as they continue to limit opponents’ chances by forcing them into turnovers versus stronger competition.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMEAC
TagsMEAC Mid-Eastern Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

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