Mid-American Update: Week 15

Mid-American Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Mid-American Conference Mid-Season Report Card: Offense Edition

As we reach the midpoint of the college basketball season, several teams in the Mid-American Conference are experiencing notable shifts in their offensive performance. Here are the top trends to watch:

• Akron’s Rebounding Struggle: Akron is struggling to secure rebounds, negatively impacting their offense.
• Ball State’s Shooting Woes vs Weaker Competition: Ball State’s shooting efficiency has been a problem versus weaker competition.
• Bowling Green’s Rebounding Issues vs Stronger Competition: Bowling Green’s rebounding struggles have contributed to their team’s overall efficiency issues.

Strongest Defensive Trends

• Ball State’s turnover-forcing ability has shown improvement versus weaker competition, with a notable trend of limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities effectively.
• E Michigan continues to struggle with defensive boards, a problem that persists versus stronger competition and is also evident in its difficulty limiting opposing teams’ second-chance opportunities.
• Buffalo is tightening up on defense, securing more defensive rebounds and disrupting opponents’ scoring chances, with impressive improvement in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages versus weaker competition.
• N Illinois has shown resilience on the glass but struggles to limit opposing teams’ second-chance opportunities versus weaker competition.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 20-5 | Elo: 1677.7 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.90 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Ball State

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1382.2 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.67 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 16-10 | Elo: 1485.1 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.18 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Buffalo

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1437.1 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.94 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Cent Michigan

Record: 8-17 | Elo: 1395.1 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.76 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

E Michigan

Record: 9-17 | Elo: 1403.6 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.31 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Kent State

Record: 19-7 | Elo: 1614.6 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.73 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Miami (OH)

Record: 25-0 | Elo: 1686.8 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.60 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 8-16 | Elo: 1336.3 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.56 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1493.8 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.44 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Toledo

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1513.5 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.51 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UMass

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1456.8 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.81 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

W Michigan

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1397.4 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.68 (ranked 275 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mid-American Conference Week 15 Analysis: Trends to Watch

As the Mid-American teams continue their season, certain trends have emerged that may indicate which teams are genuinely improving or experiencing unsustainable momentum versus weaker competition.

Offensive Declines

Akron’s shooting percentage has declined 10.5% versus stronger competition, reflecting struggles against more formidable opponents. Similarly, Akron’s off-rebounding percentage has also declined 8.2% versus weaker competition, indicating potential issues on the glass.

Ball State shares similar struggles, as their shooting percentage has decreased 9.1% versus stronger competition, and their off-rebounding percentage has dropped 7.5% versus weaker competition.

Defensive Improvements

On the other hand, some teams are displaying encouraging defensive trends. Buffalo’s defensive rebounding percentage has improved significantly +12.8% versus stronger competition, demonstrating their ability to secure crucial boards.

Cent Michigan’s defense has shown promise with a decrease in opponent shooting percentage -5.4% versus weaker competition, indicating they are doing a better job of limiting scoring opportunities.

Mixed Signals

N Illinois’ shooting percentage remains steady across both weaker and stronger competition. Conversely, Ball State’s trend for Opp Turnovers is trending up strongly +25.6% versus stronger competition, suggesting they are effectively forcing opponents to commit more mistakes.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC
TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference

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