Mountain West Update: Week 15

Mountain West Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

• New Mexico’s off rebound percentage struggles versus stronger competition, hindering their ability to secure second-chance points.
• Air Force’s turnover trend is a problem versus weaker competition, hindering their ability to maintain possession and create offense.
• Colorado State’s shooting is improving significantly versus stronger competition, contributing to their offensive efficiency.
• Fresno State’s turnovers are decreasing versus weaker competition, indicating an improvement in ball control.

Strongest Defensive Trends

• Air Force’s defensive rebounding has been improving, tightening up on the glass and stifling opponents’ second-chance opportunities versus stronger competition.

• Against weaker teams, Colorado State struggles to contain opposing offenses, allowing easy baskets.

• Boise State’s inability to force turnovers is evident in their opponent’s ability to retain possession and maintain momentum versus weaker opponents, a trend that worsens against stronger competition.

• Air Force has tightened up on the glass, improving its defensive rebounding and stifling opponents’ second-chance opportunities, particularly against weaker teams.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-22 | Elo: 1272.5 (ranked 367 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.59 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Boise State

Record: 14-10 | Elo: 1632.7 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.76 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Colorado State

Record: 15-10 | Elo: 1607.8 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.41 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1430.5 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.47 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Grand Canyon

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1631.1 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.18 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1607.5 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.04 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

New Mexico

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1687.3 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.64 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 18-5 | Elo: 1682.1 (ranked 31 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.40 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

San Jose State

Record: 6-19 | Elo: 1380.1 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.36 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1561.5 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.25 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Utah State

Record: 22-3 | Elo: 1735.5 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.43 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wyoming

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1470.6 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.73 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mountain West Teams’ Week 15 Analysis: Trends and Implications

As the Mountain West season enters its final stretch, several teams are showcasing notable trends in key areas of their game. By examining these tendencies, we can gain insight into which teams are truly improving and which might be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Note

Air Force’s turnover issue is a struggle versus weaker competition (0.207). This trend strongly suggests that the Falcons’ efficiency may be suffering due to an inability to minimize turnovers.

In contrast, Boise State is experiencing improvement in shooting accuracy versus stronger competition, with a notable upward trend. However, it remains to be seen whether this will translate to success against stronger teams.

Colorado State’s struggles on offense are becoming more pronounced versus stronger competition, as their ability to capitalize on second-chance opportunities (Off Reb Pct) continues to decline.

Fresno State is bucking the trend with regards to turnovers versus weaker competition, exhibiting an improvement in this area. However, it is essential to note that their overall turnover average remains high, suggesting continued room for improvement.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

Air Force’s defense is facing challenges on multiple fronts versus stronger competition, as opponents’ shooting accuracy is trending upwards strongly (0.56). This suggests that the Falcons may be struggling to contain their opponents’ scoring threats.

Additionally, Air Force’s ability to force turnovers versus weaker competition is declining (0.146), indicating a struggle for them to create opportunities for counter-attacks and potentially leaving themselves vulnerable on defense.

However, the Falcons’ defensive rebounding percentage is trending upwards strongly versus stronger competition, implying an improvement in their ability to secure possession and limit opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities.

Boise State’s defense is also experiencing difficulties versus stronger competition, as opponents’ shooting accuracy continues to rise. This worsening trend suggests that the Broncos may be facing more consistent threats from their opponents.

By examining these trends, Mountain West teams can gain valuable insight into areas where they need to improve and capitalize on opportunities for growth before the season concludes.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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