Patriot League Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Top Offensive Trends in Patriot League Week 15

As we navigate the mid-point of the college basketball season, several teams are exhibiting notable trends that could shape their postseason prospects. Here are the top offensive trends to watch:

• Boston U’s Shooting Improves vs Weaker Competition: Boston University’s shooting has been surging versus weaker competition, a key factor contributing to their overall offense.
• Lehigh’s Turnover Count Declines vs Stronger Teams: Lehigh is experiencing a notable decline in turnover count versus stronger teams, enabling them to sustain their offense and capitalize on scoring chances.
• Bucknell Struggles with Offensive Rebounding Percentage vs Stronger Competition: Bucknell’s performance on the boards is struggling against stronger competition, making it challenging for them to secure second-chance opportunities.
• Holy Cross Experiences Decline in Turnover Count vs Weaker Teams: Holy Cross is experiencing a notable decline in turnover count versus weaker teams, enabling them to sustain their offense and capitalize on scoring chances.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Patriot League Week 15 Defensive Trends

Army’s defensive rebounding has improved significantly versus weaker competition, securing crucial boards and providing a boost to their overall performance.
Boston U is struggling to force turnovers versus stronger competition, posing a problem for their defense as opponents maintain possession more easily.
Holy Cross is allowing opponents to secure rebounds at an alarming rate versus stronger competition.
Colgate’s defense is stifling opponents, making it increasingly difficult for them to score from the field versus weaker competition.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 09 – February 15, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): American, Boston U, Lehigh, Loyola (MD), Navy
Trending Down (Efficiency): Army, Bucknell, Colgate, Holy Cross, Lafayette

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1470.4 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.15 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Army

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1376.3 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.59 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Boston U

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1435.5 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.65 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bucknell

Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1401.4 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.32 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Colgate

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1517.4 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.14 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Holy Cross

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1343.5 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.56 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Lafayette

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1348.8 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.91 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Lehigh

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1412.1 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.09 (ranked 262 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1380.4 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.83 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Navy

Record: 21-6 | Elo: 1563.4 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.89 (ranked 94 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Patriot League Week 15 Analysis

As the Patriot League season reaches its mid-point, several teams are showing promising signs of improvement in key areas. However, some teams are struggling to sustain their momentum, raising concerns about their long-term prospects.

Offensive Trends to Highlight:

Bucknell’s turnover rate has worsened significantly versus stronger competition (Season Avg: 0.175), indicating a struggle to maintain possession.
Boston U’s shooting average is trending downwards versus stronger competition (Season Avg: 0.57), suggesting a decline in scoring efficiency.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

Army’s defensive rebounding percentage is trending up strongly versus stronger competition (Season Avg: 0.74), enabling them to limit opponents’ second-chance opportunities.
Bucknell’s opponent offensive rebounding percentage has worsened versus weaker competition (Season Avg: 0.7), making it harder for their opponents to secure rebounds and limit their scoring chances.
Colgate’s opponent shooting average has decreased significantly versus weaker competition (Season Avg: 0.51), indicating that they are becoming more effective at defending the paint.

These trends will be crucial in determining which teams have genuine momentum going into the remainder of the season.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT

TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League