SEC Update: Week 15

SEC Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  • Alabama’s Off Reb Pct struggles versus weaker competition, contributing to decreased scoring opportunities versus stronger competition.
  • Arkansas’ Shooting has improved, resulting in a more efficient offense and increased scoring chances against weaker opponents.
  • Auburn’s Turnovers are reducing, enabling them to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.
  • However, Arkansas’ Off Reb Pct is also worth monitoring, as it may impact their ability to capitalize on improved shooting.

Strongest Defensive Trends

SEC Defensive Trends

  • Alabama’s defensive rebounding has shown improvement versus stronger competition, tightening up on the boards to bolster their overall defense.
  • Auburn’s opponent shooting is a concern as it worsens versus weaker competition, allowing opposing offenses to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  • Georgia’s opponent shooting has also struggled versus stronger competition, indicating that their defense concedes too many shots against top-tier teams.
  • Tennessee’s defensive rebounding percentage has improved versus weaker competition, but they continue to struggle with opponent three-point shooting versus stronger competition.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1742.6 (ranked 10 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.75 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arkansas

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1679.4 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.30 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Auburn

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1685.8 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.71 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Florida

Record: 19-6 | Elo: 1776.0 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.77 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Georgia

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1602.9 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.42 (ranked 37 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Kentucky

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1678.5 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.12 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

LSU

Record: 14-11 | Elo: 1514.4 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.96 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Miss St

Record: 12-13 | Elo: 1563.2 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.26 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Missouri

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1602.9 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.80 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Oklahoma

Record: 13-12 | Elo: 1557.2 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.65 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Ole Miss

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1552.5 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.59 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

South Carolina

Record: 11-14 | Elo: 1474.7 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.44 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Tennessee

Record: 18-7 | Elo: 1726.2 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.15 (ranked 18 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas

Record: 15-9 | Elo: 1612.5 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.73 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Texas A&M

Record: 17-8 | Elo: 1649.8 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.12 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Vanderbilt

Record: 21-4 | Elo: 1675.9 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.99 (ranked 16 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SEC Teams Show Mixed Results in Week 15 Analysis

As the Southeastern Conference (SEC) season continues, we take a closer look at key trends that highlight areas of improvement and decline for each team.

Alabama: Defensive Woes

The Crimson Tide’s defensive rebounding percentage has increased versus stronger competition. Conversely, Alabama’s defensive rebounding percentage remains relatively consistent versus weaker competition.

Arkansas: Shooting Improvement

Arkansas’ shooting percentage has improved significantly versus weaker teams. However, the team continues to struggle with turnovers, which remains unchanged despite efforts to improve.

Auburn: Defensive Issues

Auburn’s own shooting percentage has declined versus stronger competition, contributing to their overall performance woes. This trend is a concern for the team.

Key Takeaways for SEC Teams

  • Alabama’s defensive rebounding percentage improvement against stronger teams is a positive sign.
  • Arkansas’ improved shooting percentage against weaker teams bodes well for the team’s prospects.
  • Auburn faces challenges with their own shooting, struggling to maintain effectiveness versus stronger competition.

By examining these trends, it becomes clear that some SEC teams are experiencing genuine improvements, while others continue to struggle. Next week, we will revisit this analysis with updated metrics to gain a deeper understanding of each team’s momentum.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC
TagsSEC Southeastern Conference

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