Southern Update: Week 15

Southern Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Southern Conference Week 15 Review

As we approach the midpoint of the season, teams in the Southern Conference are showcasing varying levels of offense. Among them, several trends stand out as notable contributors to their respective offenses.

• Samford’s Off Reb Pct is Struggling: Samford’s inability to effectively defend rebounds on defense has resulted in a struggle to secure second-chance opportunities and maintain possession.
• Chattanooga’s Three-Point Shooting Versus Weaker Competition has Improved: Chattanooga’s three-point shooting performance against weaker teams has shown a notable improvement, allowing them to create more scoring opportunities from beyond the arc.
• ETSU’s Off Reb Pct is Worsening: ETSU’s struggle with defensive rebounding versus stronger competition has hindered their ability to sustain possessions and capitalize on scoring chances.
• Furman’s Shooting Versus Weaker Competition is Improving: Furman’s uptick in shooting proficiency against weaker teams has contributed to more efficient scoring opportunities for the team.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  • Chattanooga’s Opp Shooting is turning the corner versus weaker competition but collapsing versus stronger competition – PROBLEM
  • ETSU’s Def Reb Pct is improving significantly versus stronger competition, indicating a notable defensive improvement – IMPROVEMENT
  • Furman’s Opp Shooting is worsening versus stronger competition, posing a challenge for their offense – PROBLEM
  • Mercer’s Opp Shooting is turning a corner versus weaker competition but collapsing versus stronger competition, revealing inconsistent defensive performance – PROBLEM


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1500.7 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.42 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

ETSU

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1565.9 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.70 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Furman

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1566.2 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.16 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Mercer

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1518.4 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.30 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Samford

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1569.7 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.01 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

The Citadel

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1307.8 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.74 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

UNCG

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1489.9 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.79 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

VMI

Record: 4-21 | Elo: 1294.9 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -27.58 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

W Carolina

Record: 10-15 | Elo: 1427.6 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.71 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Wofford

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1551.5 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.31 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southern Teams’ Week 15 Review: Key Trends to Watch

As the Southern teams wrap up their season, we take a closer look at the key trends that are shaping their campaigns. This week’s analysis focuses on the MACD trending indicators, providing valuable insights into which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Highlight

Furman has seen an increase in its Shooting Percentage (SP) throughout the season, indicating they are becoming more effective from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line. This trend suggests that Furman is able to capitalize on missed shots as effectively versus stronger competition.

On the other hand, Mercer’s Opponent Shooting Percentage (Opponent SP%) has improved over the season, suggesting that their opponents are struggling to find their mark against them versus weaker teams.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

ETSU’s Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DRB%) has improved significantly throughout the season. This trend suggests they are becoming more effective at grabbing defensive boards and limiting second-chance opportunities for their opponents versus stronger competition.

In conclusion, these trends provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each team. While some teams are struggling on offense, others are making significant strides on defense. As we move forward in the season, it will be interesting to see which teams can sustain their momentum and continue to improve.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON
TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference

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