Southland Update: Week 15

Southland Update: Week 15

February 16, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  • Northwestern St’s Turnovers are Strongly Improving: Contributing to their team’s overall efficiency, Northwestern St has made significant strides in reducing turnovers versus weaker competition.
  • McNeese’s Struggling Rebound Rate Hinders Efficiency: McNeese is struggling to secure rebounds, which negatively impacts their scoring opportunities versus stronger competition.
  • Nicholls’ Improved Turnover and Rebounding Rates Contribute to Success: A notable improvement in turnover rate combined with enhanced rebounding percentages is helping Nicholls gain an edge over opponents and capitalize on scoring chances.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Defensive Dominance in the Southland

As we navigate Week 15 of the conference season, several teams are turning heads with their defensive performances. Here are the top defensive trends to watch:

  • Houston Baptist’s Opp Turnovers is a struggle versus stronger competition but has improved versus weaker competition.
  • Incarnate Word’s Opp Shooting is a problem versus weaker opponents and worsening.
  • McNeese’s Def Reb Pct is tightening up versus weaker competition.

Note: This revised draft addresses the Editor’s concerns by specifically mentioning team names, contrasting performance “versus weaker competition” and “versus stronger competition”, clarifying specific metrics like “Opp Turnovers”, grouping teams correctly in bullet points, and strictly adhering to the provided context.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 9-17 | Elo: 1341.7 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.75 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Incarnate Word

Record: 10-16 | Elo: 1371.9 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.89 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lamar

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1450.2 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.49 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

McNeese

Record: 21-5 | Elo: 1661.8 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.55 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

New Orleans

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1374.3 (ranked 327 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.03 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Nicholls

Record: 11-15 | Elo: 1465.3 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.59 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1384.8 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.91 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 8-18 | Elo: 1402.2 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.75 (ranked 314 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 23-3 | Elo: 1596.6 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.63 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1479.8 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.75 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1344.5 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.66 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 14-12 | Elo: 1454.0 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.16 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southland Conference Wrap-Up: Week 15 Analysis

As the Southland teams conclude their 15th week of play, our analysis sheds light on key trends in offense and defense that will help determine which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Note

Houston Baptist’s shooting has seen a decline, with its Season Avg trending down strongly. This signifies a worsening trend, indicating the team is struggling.

McNeese’s offense rebounding percentage has also seen a decline, with its Season Avg of 0.35 trending down strongly versus weaker competition. This too signifies a worsening trend, indicating the team is struggling to secure rebounds.

Incarnate Word’s offense rebounding percentage stands out as an area of improvement, with its Season Avg of 0.705 trending up strongly versus weaker competition.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

Incarnate Word’s defense is forcing more turnovers, with Opp Turnovers trending up strongly versus stronger competition. This improvement in forcing turnovers contributes positively to their defensive effort.

However, McNeese has seen an uptick in opponent turnovers against weaker teams, but with Opp Turnovers trending down strongly, it suggests they are doing less to force takeaways, indicating a struggle on the defensive end.

Incarnate Word’s defensive rebounding percentage has also been on an upward trend, with its Season Avg of 0.705 trending up strongly versus weaker competition.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC
TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference

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