Week 15 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets
February 16, 2026Week 15: February 09 – February 16, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 7.6 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 3 games decided by 5 points or less and 1 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #282 Cal Poly.
These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.
#10: FAU @ Rice
Final Score: Rice 81, FAU 73
Date: February 11, 2026
Venue: FAU @ Rice
Favorite: FAU (Ranked #105)
Underdog: Rice (Ranked #234)
Predicted Score: FAU 80.1 – 72.9 (7.2 points)
Upset Rating: 12.9
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: FAU had 2 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
- Three-point shooting: Rice 9-28 (32%), FAU 3-16 (19%)
- Two-point shooting: Rice 21-35 (60%), FAU 23-46 (50%)
#9: Detroit Mercy @ Wright State
Final Score: Detroit Mercy 77, Wright State 74
Date: February 12, 2026
Venue: Detroit Mercy @ Wright State
Favorite: Wright State (Ranked #141)
Underdog: Detroit Mercy (Ranked #233)
Predicted Score: Wright State 81.0 – 71.4 (9.6 points)
Upset Rating: 14.9
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Detroit Mercy 5-13 (38%), Wright State 7-25 (28%)
- Two-point shooting: Detroit Mercy 27-48 (56%), Wright State 19-39 (49%)
#8: South Dakota St @ Denver
Final Score: Denver 79, South Dakota St 61
Date: February 12, 2026
Venue: South Dakota St @ Denver
Favorite: South Dakota St (Ranked #199)
Underdog: Denver (Ranked #241)
Predicted Score: South Dakota St 82.7 – 70.4 (12.3 points)
Upset Rating: 15.4
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Denver 12-23 (52%), South Dakota St 2-18 (11%)
- Rebounding: Denver 42, South Dakota St 24 (18-rebound advantage, 12 offensive)
#7: Youngstown St @ Detroit Mercy
Final Score: Detroit Mercy 76, Youngstown St 70
Date: February 15, 2026
Venue: Youngstown St @ Detroit Mercy
Favorite: Youngstown St (Ranked #182)
Underdog: Detroit Mercy (Ranked #233)
Predicted Score: Youngstown St 81.0 – 68.1 (13.0 points)
Upset Rating: 17.0
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Youngstown St had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Three-point shooting: Detroit Mercy 5-13 (38%), Youngstown St 5-22 (23%)
#6: Illinois State @ Evansville
Final Score: Evansville 88, Illinois State 80
Date: February 09, 2026
Venue: Illinois State @ Evansville
Favorite: Illinois State (Ranked #79)
Underdog: Evansville (Ranked #269)
Predicted Score: Illinois State 76.8 – 69.0 (7.8 points)
Upset Rating: 17.6
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Evansville 14-21 (67%), Illinois State 12-29 (41%)
- Foul trouble: Illinois State had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
#5: George Mason @ Richmond
Final Score: Richmond 82, George Mason 70
Date: February 10, 2026
Venue: George Mason @ Richmond
Favorite: George Mason (Ranked #83)
Underdog: Richmond (Ranked #121)
Predicted Score: George Mason 76.3 – 64.6 (11.8 points)
Upset Rating: 18.6
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Richmond 12-31 (39%), George Mason 4-17 (24%)
- Two-point shooting: Richmond 15-26 (58%), George Mason 19-39 (49%)
- Turnovers: George Mason 15, Richmond 10 (5-turnover disparity)
#4: Troy @ Southern Miss
Final Score: Southern Miss 69, Troy 65
Date: February 14, 2026
Venue: Troy @ Southern Miss
Favorite: Troy (Ranked #137)
Underdog: Southern Miss (Ranked #232)
Predicted Score: Troy 80.1 – 67.1 (13.0 points)
Upset Rating: 20.4
Key Factors:
- Foul trouble: Troy had 3 players with 4+ fouls
- Free throws: Southern Miss 13-16 (81%), Troy 9-16 (56%)
- Three-point shooting: Southern Miss 2-12 (17%), Troy 6-22 (27%)
#3: Utah Valley @ Utah Tech
Final Score: Utah Tech 81, Utah Valley 77
Date: February 12, 2026
Venue: Utah Valley @ Utah Tech
Favorite: Utah Valley (Ranked #118)
Underdog: Utah Tech (Ranked #222)
Predicted Score: Utah Valley 82.5 – 68.2 (14.2 points)
Upset Rating: 22.7
Key Factors:
- Three-point shooting: Utah Tech 9-19 (47%), Utah Valley 5-22 (23%)
#2: Iowa State @ TCU
Final Score: TCU 62, Iowa State 55
Date: February 10, 2026
Venue: Iowa State @ TCU
Favorite: Iowa State (Ranked #6)
Underdog: TCU (Ranked #52)
Predicted Score: Iowa State 79.6 – 68.0 (11.6 points)
Upset Rating: 23.0
Key Factors:
- Free throws: TCU 15-23 (65%), Iowa State 2-8 (25%)
- Foul trouble: Iowa State had 2 players with 4+ fouls
- Three-point shooting: TCU 5-18 (28%), Iowa State 5-23 (22%)
#1: UC Irvine @ Cal Poly
Final Score: Cal Poly 79, UC Irvine 73
Date: February 12, 2026
Venue: UC Irvine @ Cal Poly
Favorite: UC Irvine (Ranked #147)
Underdog: Cal Poly (Ranked #282)
Predicted Score: UC Irvine 86.7 – 72.2 (14.5 points)
Upset Rating: 27.6
Key Factors:
- Two-point shooting: Cal Poly 12-28 (43%), UC Irvine 15-42 (36%)
Week 15 Summary
Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10
This week’s college basketball action saw a notable increase in upsets, with 10 games defying expectations versus weaker competition. According to HoopSci’s analysis, the average margin of victory was 7.6 points.
Among the most closely contested matches were three instances where the winning team emerged by just a single point: Detroit Mercy edged out Wright State 77-74, Richmond bested George Mason 82-70, and Southern Miss narrowly defeated Troy 69-65. Conversely, one game saw a more substantial margin of victory versus stronger competition: Cal Poly defeated UC Irvine 79-73.
The close games this week showcased the unpredictability of college basketball. Several ranked teams struggled versus weaker competition, including TCU, which fell to Iowa State’s strong defense, ultimately losing 62-55 versus stronger competition.
Interestingly, Cal Poly’s victory over UC Irvine marked the only instance this week of a lower-ranked team emerging victorious against stronger competition. This unexpected result demonstrates the parity in college basketball and suggests that even lower-seeded teams can pull off major upsets with the right combination of strategy and execution versus weaker competition.
