Atlantic Sun Update: Week 16

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Stetson, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Stetson’s shooting performance has shown a notable improvement in accuracy, contributing to a consistent upward trend in overall performance on the court as they have maintained a strong scoring pace over their last five games.
  2. Lipscomb, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Lipscomb’s offense has been facing difficulties in rebounding, making it harder for them to execute their game plan effectively.
  3. Jacksonville, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Jacksonville’s inability to secure rebounds is significantly hindering their offense and overall performance.
  4. Lipscomb, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Lipscomb’s shooting has been improving, but this trend reveals a significant struggle in their offense as they face difficulties scoring consistently.
  5. Jacksonville, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Jacksonville’s improvement in managing turnovers has been a notable aspect of their recent performance, as they have shown a significant reduction in possession loss due to decreased turnover frequency.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. North Alabama, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – North Alabama’s defense has been stifling opponents on offense, potentially leading to a trade-off in their own team’s ability to create scoring opportunities effectively.
  2. Jacksonville, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Jacksonville’s defensive rebounding percentage has become a significant problem as they struggle with opponents securing more rebounds over time, resulting in a trend of negative Def Reb Pct.
  3. FGCU, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – FGCU’s enhanced defensive rebounding has proven to be a stabilizing force, allowing them to outperform their opponents in securing rebounds and limiting scoring opportunities through a significant improvement in their ability to grab more defensive boards.
  4. North Florida, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – North Florida’s stifling defense has led opponents into a struggle with shooting efficiency against them.
  5. Jacksonville, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Jacksonville’s defense faces a significant problem as they struggle to force turnovers, which has resulted in opposing teams gaining additional possessions due to an increase in turnovers by Jacksonville, with 17 turnovers committed so far this season.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 21-6 | Elo: 1572.7 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.39 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Bellarmine

Record: 11-17 | Elo: 1349.3 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.41 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1472.8 (ranked 223 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.72 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 11-18 | Elo: 1443.2 (ranked 255 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.92 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

FGCU

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1471.8 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.68 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1408.3 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.14 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1564.0 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.99 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 8-19 | Elo: 1415.3 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.12 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

North Florida

Record: 6-23 | Elo: 1345.4 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.69 (ranked 347 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Queens University

Record: 17-12 | Elo: 1522.4 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.52 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Stetson

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1361.2 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.23 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1378.3 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.65 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Atlantic Sun Week 16 Recap: Trends and Momentum

As we conclude our analysis of the Atlantic Sun conference in Week 16, several teams have shown notable trends that could impact their season-long performance. FGCU’s offense has struggled with a decline in shooting percentages, indicating their vulnerability on the court and potential issues limiting their own scoring opportunities.

North Florida’s defense has improved in limiting opponents’ shooting percentages, trending down strongly. This trend indicates that they are effectively stifling opponents’ scoring opportunities and protecting their own lead.

Lipscomb has seen a significant uptick in shooting percentages, trending up strongly. This improvement is a strong indicator of a team’s ability to score consistently and adapt to opponents’ defensive strategies.

In conclusion, these trends offer valuable insights into each team’s strengths and weaknesses heading into Week 17. As we continue to monitor the Atlantic Sun teams, it will be essential to track these developments to understand which teams are genuinely improving versus those struggling with unsustainable momentum.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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