Big 12 Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Kansas State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – Kansas State’s inability to establish a consistent scoring rhythm stems from their struggles on the boards, consistently failing to secure rebounds and thereby limiting their team’s opportunities to maintain sustained offense.
Baylor, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Baylor’s inability to secure rebounds, a struggle that corresponds to a NEGATIVE trend in their metrics, is directly impacting their offense by limiting scoring opportunities and putting additional pressure on their defense.
Iowa State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Iowa State’s inability to secure rebounds on defense has been a significant problem, as they consistently struggle with securing their share of defensive rebounds over time.
Oklahoma State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Oklahoma State’s field goal percentage has struggled, contributing to their offense woes.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Kansas State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Kansas State’s defensive rebounding has declined, indicating a struggle in this category that may hinder the team’s ability to effectively stifle opponents.
Iowa State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Iowa State’s struggles to create scoring opportunities stem from their difficulty in generating turnovers on defense, hindering their momentum on offense.
Baylor, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Baylor’s defense struggles to contain opposing offenses, with its inability to limit shooting opportunities reflected in its statistics, specifically a high field goal percentage allowed by opponents this season.
Kansas State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Kansas State’s defense has struggled to contain opposing teams’ three-point shooting, particularly in conference games where their performance has worsened over time as they fail to adapt effectively to the increasing volume of shots from beyond the arc.
Kansas, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Kansas’ struggles on the defensive glass, evident from their decreasing 67.2% defensive rebound percentage, are a problem for their ability to limit opponents’ chances in key situations through securing rebounds.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 16 – February 22, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
Trending Down (Efficiency): Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 25-2 | Elo: 1791.3 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.61 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 14-13 | Elo: 1532.7 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.62 (ranked 84 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

BYU

Record: 20-7 | Elo: 1701.7 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.59 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1580.8 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.34 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Cincinnati

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1584.7 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.84 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Colorado

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1545.7 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.06 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Houston

Record: 23-5 | Elo: 1807.2 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.62 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 23-4 | Elo: 1739.7 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.25 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Kansas

Record: 21-7 | Elo: 1716.2 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.42 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1502.0 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.10 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Oklahoma State

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1550.0 (ranked 115 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.48 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

TCU

Record: 17-10 | Elo: 1599.5 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.89 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 20-7 | Elo: 1725.5 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.80 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UCF

Record: 19-7 | Elo: 1629.8 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.61 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Utah

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1474.0 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.36 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1566.7 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.64 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big 12 Teams’ Key Trends in Week 16 Analysis

As the Big 12 conference continues its season, several teams have demonstrated significant trends that warrant attention. By examining these key metrics, we can gain insight into which teams are genuinely improving and which are experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Performance: Worsening Trends

Baylor’s turnover rate has worsened throughout the season, indicating a decrease in their efficiency. This makes it challenging to manage possession effectively. Concurrently, Baylor’s opponents have seen an increase in shooting percentage, allowing them to find more success from beyond the arc.

Kansas State and Iowa State have both seen a decline in their Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORP), averaging below their seasonal rates. This downward trend indicates a decrease in their ability to capitalize on offensive rebounds.

Defensive Performance: Worsening Trends

On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor’s opponents have seen an increase in shooting percentage, allowing them to shoot at a higher rate than expected. Kansas’ Defensive Rebound Percentage (DRP) has taken a hit, allowing opponents to secure more offensive boards with an average below their seasonal rate.

These trends are concerning for both teams, indicating difficulties in securing rebounds on defense and limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference