Conference USA Update: Week 16

Conference USA Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. UTEP, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – UTEP’s struggles with securing second-chance opportunities are exacerbating their possession control problems in games, as evident from their inability to capitalize on scoring chances.
  2. W Kentucky, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Western Kentucky’s improvement in three-point shooting has been a significant factor in their recent success, as they’ve seen a notable uptick from beyond the arc over their last five games. However, despite this progress, their struggles with turnovers continue to hinder their ability to maintain consistent momentum.
  3. LA Tech, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – LA Tech’s inability to maintain possession has been a persistent problem this season, directly affecting their overall performance on the field.
  4. Mid Tennessee, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Mid Tennessee has shown a struggle in reducing turnovers, contributing to their defensive strategy and hindering their chances of success in Conference USA.
  5. UTEP, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – UTEP’s turnover struggles have become a persistent hindrance, weighing heavily on their overall performance and contributing to an inflated scoring margin that threatens to derail their otherwise promising defensive efficiency and rebounding numbers.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. FIU, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – FIU has been struggling on the defensive glass.
  2. UTEP, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – UTEP’s inability to force turnovers has been a significant problem, contributing to their struggles in stifling opposing offenses due to opponents being forced into fewer turnovers.
  3. Mid Tennessee, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Mid Tennessee’s defense has struggled to contain their offense due to poor shot selection from their opponents, which has hindered their ability to effectively counterattack.
  4. Mid Tennessee, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Mid Tennessee’s defensive rebounding has been struggling, specifically in securing a respectable share of defensive rebounds, which negatively impacts their ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities.
  5. LA Tech, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – LA Tech’s inability to capitalize on turnovers from its opponents has resulted in a struggle to maintain momentum and generate consistent scoring opportunities heading into Conference USA play, as the team often finds itself forced to counter-attack after relinquishing possession.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 9-17 | Elo: 1434.7 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.51 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

FIU

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1418.7 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.90 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Jacksonville St

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1490.7 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.49 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kennesaw State

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1519.4 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.63 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

LA Tech

Record: 15-12 | Elo: 1526.9 (ranked 143 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.51 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Liberty

Record: 23-4 | Elo: 1689.9 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.66 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1506.8 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.32 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Missouri State

Record: 12-14 | Elo: 1417.1 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.44 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

New Mexico St

Record: 13-13 | Elo: 1475.6 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.96 (ranked 175 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Sam Houston

Record: 19-8 | Elo: 1582.5 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.22 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UTEP

Record: 10-17 | Elo: 1439.0 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.42 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

W Kentucky

Record: 16-11 | Elo: 1534.8 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.36 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Conference USA Week 16 Analysis

As Conference USA teams conclude their 16th week of play, several key trends have emerged that will shape the conference’s trajectory moving forward. This analysis focuses on key offensive and defensive metrics to identify areas where teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Watch

  1. LA Tech has seen a significant uptick in turnovers, with its season average trending upward strongly. This worsening trend indicates that the team is struggling with ball control.
  2. Mid Tennessee has made strides in reducing turnovers, with its season average trending downward strongly. This improvement suggests that the team is becoming more efficient in managing possession.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

  1. FIU has seen significant improvement in defensive rebounding percentage, with its season average trending upward strongly. This uptick indicates that the team is becoming more effective at securing rebounds on defense.
  2. LA Tech’s ability to force turnovers on their opponents has improved, with a trend upward strongly. This suggests that the team is creating opportunities for themselves through defensive pressure.

The MACD momentum indicator provides a clear snapshot of each team’s trajectory, offering insights into which teams are gaining or losing momentum. As the season continues, these trends will undoubtedly have a significant impact on Conference USA standings and playoff positioning.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA
TagsConference USA CUSA

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