MAAC Update: Week 16

MAAC Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Niagara, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Niagara’s issues on the glass have become a pronounced problem, leading to difficulties in maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities that ultimately hinder their team’s overall effectiveness on offense.
  2. Marist, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Marist’s performance issues are largely due to a significant problem with ball control on the court, as indicated by a decline in their ability to score effectively from the paint and beyond the arc.
  3. Fairfield, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Fairfield’s shooters have developed a consistent flow, allowing them to create a more harmonious offense that has contributed significantly to the team’s overall performance.
  4. Canisius, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – The Canisius team has struggled with turnovers, resulting in difficulties maintaining possession of the ball and impacting their offense’s ability to create scoring opportunities.
  5. Niagara, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – Niagara’s tendency to relinquish possession on offense has been a persistent problem throughout their season, contributing to their inconsistency and hindering their overall performance.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Rider, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Rider has been steadily improving its defensive efficiency, as evidenced by a notable trend of forcing turnovers from opponents, with a significant increase in the number of forced turnovers per game over the last 5 games.
  2. Manhattan, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Manhattan’s defensive rebounding has been a significant problem, limiting their ability to control the boards and impact opponents’ chances on offense.
  3. Rider, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Rider’s defense has struggled with their opponents’ shooting efficiency, which has been a significant problem for them against Rider’s opponents.
  4. Marist, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Marist’s inability to control its opponents’ scoring has led to a noticeable trend of them shooting with greater freedom.
  5. Iona, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Iona’s defense is struggling to disrupt opponents’ offenses due to its inability to consistently force opponents to surrender possession, resulting in a notable problem for their ability to gain an advantage.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 9-20 | Elo: 1325.1 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.22 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Fairfield

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1517.6 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.31 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Iona

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1510.4 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.12 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Manhattan

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1425.2 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.33 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Marist

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1550.4 (ranked 114 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.59 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 20-9 | Elo: 1621.9 (ranked 60 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.67 (ranked 153 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1509.9 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.31 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Niagara

Record: 7-21 | Elo: 1344.7 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.19 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Quinnipiac

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1559.0 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.11 (ranked 170 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Rider

Record: 4-23 | Elo: 1344.1 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.22 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Sacred Heart

Record: 12-18 | Elo: 1439.4 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.91 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Siena

Record: 19-10 | Elo: 1525.3 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.50 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 15-11 | Elo: 1507.0 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.30 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

MAAC Teams Show Varied Improvement in Week 16 Analysis

As we conclude our Week 16 analysis of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC), several teams have demonstrated significant improvement, while others may be experiencing unsustainable momentum. Our data-driven approach highlights key trends that will help shape our understanding of each team’s season.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

Canisius is struggling with turnovers, a trend that has worsened. Fairfield has seen an improvement in shooting efficiency. Marist’s turnover issues are on the decline.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

Iona has improved its ability to force turnovers. Manhattan has shown improvement in defensive rebounding percentage, grabbing more defensive boards. Both Marist and Rider struggle with allowing opponents to shoot efficiently.

These trends provide valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each MAAC team. As we move forward, our analysis will continue to monitor these metrics, helping us identify which teams are genuinely improving and which may be experiencing temporary success.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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