SWAC Update: Week 16

SWAC Update: Week 16

February 24, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Alabama A&M, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.031 – Alabama A&M is struggling with its defensive rebounding, particularly in terms of poor performance in this area significantly impacting its overall performance.
  2. Jackson State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Jackson State’s struggle to improve on the glass, specifically in their Off Reb Pct, has been a notable area of concern contributing to their difficulties in outrebounding opponents.
  3. Alcorn State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Alcorn State has struggled to maintain possession under defensive pressure, experiencing a notable rise in turnovers that hinder their control of the ball due to an increase in giveaways per game.
  4. Miss Valley St, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Miss Valley St’s struggles with turnovers have led to inconsistent play on offense, which they are working to rectify.
  5. Grambling, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Grambling’s struggle to control rebounds on both ends of the court has been a problem for their overall defensive performance and offense.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Grambling, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.027 – Grambling’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ defensive rebounding, leading to a significant impact on their team performance.
  2. Alabama State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Alabama State’s persistent struggles with defensive rebounding continue to plague the team, as efforts to improve on the glass have yet to yield tangible results.
  3. Miss Valley St, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Miss Valley St’s improved defensive rebounding has emerged as a significant challenge for opponents, who are struggling to secure rebounds on the glass.
  4. Alcorn State, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Alcorn State’s defense has turned into a consistent thorn in the side of its opponents, frequently forcing turnovers that disrupt their momentum.
  5. Miss Valley St, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Miss Valley St has struggled to limit its opponents’ scoring opportunities after forcing turnovers, which presents a problem for its defensive strategy and momentum.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

AR-Pine Bluff

Record: 10-16 | Elo: 1354.7 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.31 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Alabama A&M

Record: 16-12 | Elo: 1410.4 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.74 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Alabama State

Record: 9-19 | Elo: 1398.8 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.20 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Alcorn State

Record: 7-19 | Elo: 1394.4 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.53 (ranked 358 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Bethune-Cookman

Record: 15-13 | Elo: 1498.5 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.83 (ranked 266 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Florida A&M

Record: 9-15 | Elo: 1387.8 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.45 (ranked 352 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Grambling

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1400.2 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.38 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Jackson State

Record: 9-18 | Elo: 1435.6 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -33.27 (ranked 362 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Miss Valley St

Record: 2-27 | Elo: 1155.0 (ranked 370 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -43.24 (ranked 365 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

PV A&M

Record: 11-17 | Elo: 1311.4 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.63 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern

Record: 13-14 | Elo: 1477.7 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.23 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Texas Southern

Record: 9-16 | Elo: 1416.0 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.44 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

SWAC Teams Show Mixed Results on Key Metrics

As the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) continues its season, several teams have shown notable trends in key areas of the game. An analysis of the momentum indicators reveals both positive and negative developments for the league’s squads.

Offensive Trends

Two SWAC teams are experiencing issues on the boards, as their offensive rebounding percentages continue to decline:

  • Alabama A&M has seen its offense struggle with rebounds, trending down strongly in terms of Off Reb Pct.
  • Grambling is also experiencing difficulties, with its offense rebounding percentage worsening over time.

Conversely, a team in the league is showing improvement in this area:

  • Alabama State has improved significantly on defensive boards, with its defensive rebounding percentage trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends

Several teams are excelling on defense:

  • Grambling’s defense is also showing improvement in the board battle, with its defensive rebounding percentage rising.
  • Alcorn State is struggling to limit turnovers against their opponents, with their opponents’ turnover rates trending up strongly.

These trends offer valuable insights into the current state of each team’s performance. While some teams are struggling to secure rebounds or limit turnovers, others are excelling on defense. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see which teams can maintain their momentum and which will be unable to sustain their improvements.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySWAC
TagsSouthwestern Athletic Conference SWAC

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