American Update: Week 17

American Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. ECU, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – East Carolina’s shooting performance has shown a notable improvement this season, contributing to a significant increase in their offense as they continue to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  2. Memphis, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Memphis struggles with securing second chances on offense, which seems to be linked to their difficulties in rebounding and maintaining possession.
  3. Memphis, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Memphis’s persistent shooting struggles are directly contributing to a significant decline in overall momentum and performance on the court, ultimately hindering their offense.
  4. Tulane, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.011 – Tulane’s significant number of turnovers is exacerbating a problem in maintaining possession on offense, as they struggle to retain control of the ball due to their inability to protect against turnovers.
  5. Memphis, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Memphis’s persistent struggles with turnovers are a significant problem, but their recent ability to minimize losses due to turnover-related issues is contributing positively to their performance by indicating they’re making progress in addressing this issue.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Memphis, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Memphis’s defensive board control has become a struggle, allowing opponents to secure second-chance opportunities that hinder their own offense.
  2. Tulsa, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Tulsa’s improvement on defensive rebounding has resulted in a notable decline in opponents’ scoring opportunities, marking a significant shift towards more effective game strategy.
  3. USF, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – USF’s defense has been stifling opponents effectively, limiting scoring opportunities and forcing turnovers.
  4. Memphis, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Memphis’s defense continues to struggle with containing opposing scorers in home games, as evident by a notable increase in opponents’ successful shooting performances against them on their own court.
  5. Tulane, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Tulane’s defense is struggling to disrupt opponents’ possessions, as the team has seen a significant problem with turnovers, threatening its overall performance.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 14-14 | Elo: 1473.9 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.78 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

ECU

Record: 11-18 | Elo: 1449.0 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.28 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

FAU

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1558.0 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.75 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Memphis

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1569.0 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.23 (ranked 127 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1577.1 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.69 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Rice

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1424.8 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.88 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1486.5 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.88 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tulane

Record: 17-12 | Elo: 1541.3 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.04 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Tulsa

Record: 23-6 | Elo: 1577.0 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.32 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UAB

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1604.4 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.94 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

USF

Record: 21-8 | Elo: 1613.2 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.96 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UTSA

Record: 5-24 | Elo: 1316.9 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.50 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Wichita State

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1592.2 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.32 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

American Conference Basketball Analysis for Week 17

As the college basketball season reaches its climax, teams are vying for position in their respective conferences. In this week’s analysis, we’ll be focusing on key trends in the American Conference to identify which teams are genuinely improving and those that may be struggling.

Offensive Trends

ECU is experiencing an increase in Season Average Points Per Game (PPG), indicating a trend of improved consistency. Memphis, however, is struggling with its shooting, as evidenced by a downward trend in opponent-adjusted Field Goal Percentage (FG%).

Defensive Trends

USF’s defense is showing improvement in forcing turnovers, with a notable trend upward in Season Average Turnover Rate. This suggests that USF’s defense is becoming more effective at disrupting opponents’ offenses.

Turnover Trends

ECU has demonstrated an ability to reduce turnovers, with a downward trend in Season Average Turnover Rate indicating improved efficiency and fewer mistakes.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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