Horizon Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Cleveland State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.037 – Cleveland State’s struggles with defensive rebounding percentage pose a significant problem, as poor performance in this area directly impacts its ability to secure scoring opportunities and ultimately contribute to its overall performance.
Detroit Mercy, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – Detroit Mercy’s struggle with securing rebounds is partly due to their defensive rebounding performance being in decline.
Detroit Mercy, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Detroit Mercy’s improved shooting, particularly their increased three-point accuracy and effective shot selection, has contributed to their growing consistency as they capitalize on scoring opportunities and build momentum throughout the season with an offense that is capitalizing on scoring chances.
Detroit Mercy, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Detroit Mercy has struggled with turnovers, contributing to inconsistent execution of plays on offense, hindering their ability to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Cleveland State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Cleveland State has been working to address their turnover struggles, but despite some improvements in shooting percentage, they continue to face difficulties maintaining possession.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Cleveland State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.032 – Cleveland State’s defense has been struggling to contain opponents, allowing them to shoot with relative ease and creating significant problems for the team.
Green Bay, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Green Bay’s difficulty in containing opponents’ shooting prowess has become a notable issue.
IUPUI, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – IUPUI has made significant strides in stifling opponents on the glass, resulting in a marked improvement in their ability to secure rebounds and exert better control over the boards.
Cleveland State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Cleveland State’s improved ability to grab defensive rebounds has become a double-edged sword, as it creates pressure on their offense to adapt and respond to the reduced scoring opportunities by shifting their game plan.
IUPUI, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – IUPUI’s defense is struggling as its opponents increasingly limit their turnovers, posing a challenge for the team’s strategy.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Detroit Mercy, Green Bay, IUPUI, Milwaukee, N Kentucky
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cleveland State, Wright State, Youngstown St, Purdue Fort Wayne

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1419.5 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.92 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1430.6 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.36 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Green Bay

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1447.5 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.69 (ranked 187 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

IUPUI

Record: 7-24 | Elo: 1275.9 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.46 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Milwaukee

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1458.8 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.75 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

N Kentucky

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1496.8 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.12 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Oakland

Record: 15-15 | Elo: 1516.7 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.41 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1507.4 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.83 (ranked 245 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Robert Morris

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1584.2 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.58 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Wright State

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1538.2 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.20 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Youngstown St

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1479.7 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.44 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Horizon League Wrap-up: Week 17

The Horizon League season continues to unfold, with several teams showcasing notable trends in their performance. Our analysis highlights key metrics that offer insights into each team’s strengths and weaknesses.

Cleveland State has seen an improvement in their turnover rate, with a downward trend indicating better ball security. Their ability to reduce turnovers (season avg: 0.164, trending down strongly) is a significant strength, as they are capitalizing on more scoring opportunities due to fewer mistakes. However, Cleveland State’s opponent shooting percentage has increased, signaling a decline in defensive prowess. This struggle for the team will need to be addressed.

Detroit Mercy has been a standout team this season, with its shooting percentage trending upwards strongly. They are making the most of their chances on offense and showcasing improved efficiency in their shots taken.

Green Bay has seen an improvement in its ability to limit opponent scoring, which is a good trend for the team. Their defense is doing a better job of stifling opponents’ offense.

IUPUI’s turnover rate on defense has increased, indicating that they are generating more turnovers against their opponents. This worsening trend could impact IUPUI’s overall defensive performance and create opportunities for their opponents to capitalize on mistakes.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ

TagsHorizon Horizon League HORZ