MAAC Update: Week 17

MAAC Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Fairfield, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Fairfield’s turnover struggles have become a growing concern, as their inability to maintain possession of the ball has led to numerous scoring opportunities for opposing teams and hindered their own offense’s ability to capitalize on momentum.
  2. Iona, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Iona’s excessive turnover rate has hindered their ability to sustain offense and maintain possession of the ball throughout games, directly contributing to a struggle in maintaining control of the game.
  3. Marist, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Marist’s struggles in field goal conversion are contributing to their problem in efficiently scoring points on the board.
  4. Manhattan, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – The Manhattan team’s shooting has struggled with consistency, contributing to their performance issues this season due to a lack of accuracy on offense.
  5. Marist, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – A decline in turnovers has resulted in fewer scoring opportunities for opponents on defense and has contributed to improved shot selection among Marist players.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Canisius, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Canisius has struggled with stifling opponents from scoring, which has led to defensive performance issues.
  2. Iona, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Iona’s team defense has been stifling their opponents’ ability to shoot effectively, as recent games have shown a trend where Iona’s opponents struggle with lower shooting percentages compared to previous performances.
  3. Marist, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Marist’s defense is struggling to contain opponents, as its shooting efficiency has declined, leading to a significant issue in overall performance.
  4. Canisius, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Canisius struggles to disrupt its opponents’ offenses, as forcing turnovers often leads to extra possessions instead of securing a stop.
  5. Manhattan, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.009 – Manhattan’s defensive strategy has been a major problem, significantly stifling opponents’ scoring chances and limiting their opportunities to score as they have struggled with turnover issues.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1333.2 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.11 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Fairfield

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1511.6 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.80 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Iona

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1524.1 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.03 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Manhattan

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1409.8 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.51 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Marist

Record: 18-11 | Elo: 1536.6 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.53 (ranked 110 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Merrimack

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1612.7 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.31 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1514.2 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.43 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Niagara

Record: 8-22 | Elo: 1351.9 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.73 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Quinnipiac

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1552.9 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.35 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Rider

Record: 4-25 | Elo: 1337.2 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -24.24 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Sacred Heart

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1448.6 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.46 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Siena

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1521.3 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.14 (ranked 128 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

St Peter’s

Record: 17-11 | Elo: 1526.0 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.03 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

MAAC Teams’ Key Trends: Strengths and Weaknesses

As the MAAC season continues, we’ve analyzed key trends to help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Concerns

Fairfield’s tendency to commit turnovers is trending up strongly (0.151 turnovers per game). This struggle to maintain possession further exacerbates their fragile offense. In contrast, Manhattan and Marist have both seen declines in shooting percentages, indicating an improvement in their offensive performance.

Defensive Strengths

Canisius stands out for its ability to limit opponents’ shots, with a Season Average of 0.52 opponent shots per game trending down strongly. This is particularly notable given their success in forcing fewer turnovers.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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