MEAC Update: Week 17

MEAC Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Delaware State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.037 – Delaware State’s offense has struggled to capitalize on scoring chances, which is a contributing factor to their inconsistent conference performance.
  2. NC Central, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.029 – NC Central’s inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities after turnovers has become a consistent struggle, hindering their overall performance and contributing to inconsistent results on both ends of the court.
  3. Norfolk State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Norfolk State’s improved shooting has contributed to their more efficient offense.
  4. Howard, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Despite initial concerns about their scoring ability, Howard’s shooting has shown steady improvement contributing significantly to their overall performance.
  5. Coppin State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Coppin State’s improved rebounding efforts have allowed them to capitalize on second-chance shots and create more offense, as evidenced by their increased rebounds per game.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Coppin State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Coppin State’s defense has struggled to contain opponents, allowing them to shoot freely which has become a notable problem throughout the season as they have difficulty limiting their shot attempts.
  2. Howard, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.027 – Howard’s stifling defense has been rendering their opponents unable to capitalize on scoring chances effectively.
  3. Coppin State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Coppin State has struggled with stifling opponents by securing more defensive rebounds in their recent games.
  4. MD-E Shore, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – MD-E Shore’s shooting efficiency decline has presented a significant challenge for their opponents, who must adjust their strategy to counter this trend and adapt to the team’s shifting performance.
  5. Delaware State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Delaware State’s inability to limit turnovers, as evident in their performance regarding opponent giveaways, poses a significant problem for the team’s overall defensive strategy.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Coppin State

Record: 7-22 | Elo: 1297.0 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.86 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Delaware State

Record: 6-21 | Elo: 1310.1 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -30.57 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Howard

Record: 18-10 | Elo: 1484.8 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.21 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

MD-E Shore

Record: 9-20 | Elo: 1316.2 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.97 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Morgan State

Record: 12-15 | Elo: 1394.5 (ranked 311 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.82 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

NC Central

Record: 11-16 | Elo: 1389.3 (ranked 315 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.98 (ranked 343 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Norfolk State

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1504.2 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.99 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

S Carolina St

Record: 6-21 | Elo: 1366.4 (ranked 329 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.76 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 17 Recap: Key Trends in the MEAC

As we conclude our analysis of Week 17 in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC), several teams stand out for their improvements and declines on both ends of the court. Leveraging momentum indicators, we’ve identified key trends to highlight.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

  • Delaware State is struggling with a downward trend in its offensive rebound percentage.
  • Howard and Norfolk State are exhibiting improved shooting percentages, indicating an increase in their offensive efficiency.

Defensive Trends to Prioritize:

  • Coppin State has shown improvement on two fronts. Firstly, they are grabbing more defensive boards at a higher rate. Secondly, this is reflected in the downward trend of “Opp Reb Pct.”
  • Delaware State’s opponents have seen a decrease in turnovers forced against them.
  • Howard’s opponents’ shooting percentage is trending down strongly.

These trends offer valuable insights into each team’s strengths and weaknesses. As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see how these momentum indicators continue to evolve, influencing the final standings of the MEAC.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMEAC
TagsMEAC Mid-Eastern Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

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