Mid-American Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Buffalo, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.028 – Buffalo’s persistent inability to secure offensive rebounds is a significant problem that has been contributing to their overall performance decline, hindering the team’s ability to control possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
Bowling Green, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Bowling Green’s inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, particularly after turnovers, has resulted in a significant struggle to maintain possession and create offense, ultimately leading to inefficient plays and lost scoring chances.
Cent Michigan, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Cent Michigan’s increased three-point frequency has led to a substantial boost in scoring opportunities, as their offense benefits from more precise shot selection and execution resulting in a more effective game plan.
Akron, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Akron’s inability to secure rebounds on offense, particularly in terms of their 27.5% average of available rebounds on offense, is a problem contributing to their shooting struggles at a rate of 42.1%.
Bowling Green, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – Bowling Green’s persistent turnover issues continue to be a challenge for the team, but their offense has shown signs of improvement in terms of points per possession.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Ball State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Ball State faces a significant challenge as they navigate their conference schedule due to stiff competition in terms of opponent shooting proficiency, which poses a struggle for the team’s defensive strategy and overall performance.
Bowling Green, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Bowling Green has struggled with controlling the glass and limiting opponents’ second-chance opportunities through efforts on the boards.
Ball State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Ball State’s defensive rebounding woes have been stifling opponents’ scoring opportunities, forcing them to endure prolonged stretches without possession of the ball as the Cardinals effectively corral rebounds and limit their foes’ chances to score.
Buffalo, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Buffalo’s defense has been struggling to contain opponents’ high shooting rates, which have allowed them to score easily against the team.
Bowling Green, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Bowling Green’s offense is capitalizing on their opponent’s turnover struggles, as they have been unable to hold onto the ball consistently.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Akron, Cent Michigan, Toledo, UMass
Trending Down (Efficiency): Ball State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, E Michigan, Kent State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 24-5 | Elo: 1701.0 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.55 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Ball State

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1393.6 (ranked 313 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.28 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Bowling Green

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1464.6 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.15 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Buffalo

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1419.4 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.42 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cent Michigan

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1406.6 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.19 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

E Michigan

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1400.8 (ranked 304 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.23 (ranked 191 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kent State

Record: 21-8 | Elo: 1615.3 (ranked 61 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.56 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Miami (OH)

Record: 29-0 | Elo: 1705.8 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.09 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

N Illinois

Record: 9-19 | Elo: 1327.8 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.75 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Ohio

Record: 15-14 | Elo: 1494.6 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.06 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Toledo

Record: 16-13 | Elo: 1534.0 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.50 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UMass

Record: 15-15 | Elo: 1418.3 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.21 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

W Michigan

Record: 10-19 | Elo: 1395.0 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.11 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mid-American Conference Wrap-Up: Trends to Watch for Week 17

As the Mid-American Conference season continues, we examine key trends emerging from the data. Our analysis focuses on teams demonstrating genuine improvement versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Akron’s rebounding prowess is a concern, with their Off Reb Pct trending down strongly. This decline in value indicates worsening performance in securing rebounds offensively. Conversely, Bowling Green has made strides in reducing turnovers, showcasing an improving trend. However, the Falcons’ struggle to grab defensive boards is evident in their low Def Reb Pct.

Buffalo’s offense has faced challenges due to a downward trend in Off Reb Pct. This decline suggests difficulties in securing rebounds and may impact their overall performance.

Defensive Trends

Ball State’s defense has improved significantly, as evidenced by the downtrend in Opp Shooting and uptrend in Def Reb Pct. However, a closer look reveals that Ball State’s Opp Shooting trending down strongly is actually a problem for the team.

The MACD momentum indicators will continue to be crucial in identifying which teams are genuinely improving versus those relying on fleeting momentum.

Key Takeaways

Akron’s Off Reb Pct is trending down strongly, indicating worsening performance.
Bowling Green has improved its turnover defense but worsened its ability to force turnovers.
Ball State’s Opp Shooting trending down strongly indicates a problem for the team.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC

TagsMAC Mid-American Mid-American Conference