Patriot League Update: Week 17

Patriot League Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Colgate, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Colgate’s struggles with defensive rebounding are hindering their offense, ultimately disrupting their ability to get into a rhythm.
  2. Boston U, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Boston U’s shooting struggles have persisted this season due to a less efficient three-point shot and decreased field goal attempts from within the paint, contributing to their growing scoring woes.
  3. American, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – The American’s struggle with turnovers, a significant concern in their overall performance, persists despite efforts to improve.
  4. Boston U, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Boston U’s inability to capitalize on opponents’ turnovers has crippled their offense, resulting in a struggle to sustain scoring momentum and ultimately hampering their chances of winning games consistently due to inconsistent performance.
  5. Army, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Army’s turnover struggles are deepening, causing them to relinquish possession frequently on the court and severely hampering their ability to control the game.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. American, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – The American team’s struggle with poor defensive rebounding has turned the landscape of their games upside down, allowing opponents to capitalize on second-chance opportunities and wreak havoc in the paint, transforming what should be a controlled environment into a frenzied free-for-all.
  2. Boston U, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Boston U’s defense continues to struggle when opponents shoot effectively, posing significant challenges for the team if this trend persists unchecked and threatening their chances of success in upcoming matches.
  3. Army, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Army’s defensive performance has been struggling to gain control over possessions, resulting in a lack of scoring opportunities due to its inability to secure rebounds effectively.
  4. Holy Cross, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Holy Cross has struggled to limit its opponents’ scoring chances, which has been compounded by its challenges in forcing turnovers and capitalizing on those opportunities, particularly in terms of limiting opponents’ turnover margin.
  5. Colgate, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Colgate’s strategy of stifling its opponents by forcing turnovers has faced a significant challenge in maintaining possession, posing a problem for the team due to its inability to effectively limit opposing teams’ control of the game.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1462.4 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.90 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Army

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1361.3 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.52 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1455.5 (ranked 240 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.46 (ranked 194 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 9-22 | Elo: 1383.0 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.81 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Colgate

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1490.5 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.39 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Holy Cross

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1327.8 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.42 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Lafayette

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1375.6 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.63 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Lehigh

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1437.3 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.44 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1368.9 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.55 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Navy

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1587.0 (ranked 81 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.51 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Patriot League Analysis: Week 17 Wrap-Up

As the Patriot League season continues, we’ve analyzed key trends to identify teams genuinely improving and those experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Highlight

  1. American University: Turnovers have decreased significantly this season (Season Avg: 0.147, Trend: Down). This improvement is a strong indicator of better team management and decision-making.
  2. Boston University: Opp Shooting has decreased this season (Season Avg: 0.54, Trend: Down), indicating a stronger defensive performance that limits opponents’ scoring chances.

On the other hand:

  1. Army: Turnovers have increased this season (Season Avg: 0.16, Trend: Up). This worsening trend could lead to more mistakes and easier scoring chances for opponents.
  2. Colgate: Opp Turnovers has decreased (Season Avg: 0.145, Trend: Down), indicating that the Raiders are doing a better job of forcing opponents into turnovers.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

  1. American University: Def Reb Pct has trended upward strongly (Season Avg: 0.72, Trend: Up). This improvement suggests that American is becoming more effective at grabbing defensive boards.
  2. Army: Army’s Def Reb Pct has increased (Season Avg: 0.74, Trend: Up), indicating a stronger ability to secure rebounds and limit opponents’ scoring chances.

On the other hand:

  1. Boston University: Off Reb Pct has declined (Season Avg: 0.256, Trend: Down), indicating a decrease in the team’s ability to secure rebounds.
  2. Colgate: Opp Off Reb Pct has increased (Season Avg: 0.323, Trend: Up), making it more challenging for opponents to secure rebounds and score.

These trends provide valuable insights into the teams’ performances and can help identify areas where improvement is needed or momentum might be unsustainable. We’ll continue to analyze these metrics in future articles.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League

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