Southland Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

McNeese, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.032 – McNeese struggles with defensive rebounding, which is hindering their ability to capitalize on second-chance possessions.
Incarnate Word, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Incarnate Word struggles with securing rebounds, resulting in difficulties maintaining possession and capitalizing on scoring opportunities due to their poor rebounding performance.
Houston Baptist, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Houston Baptist’s shooting struggles and scoring inconsistency, which is hindering their ability to achieve a consistent flow of points in their scoring efforts, are posing significant challenges for their offense.
McNeese, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – McNeese’s shooting struggles have become a significant problem, contributing to its recent slump in the Southland Conference standings during Week 17.
McNeese, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – McNeese’s persistent struggle with turnovers has hindered their ability to maintain a consistent scoring rhythm, ultimately affecting their overall performance in week 17 of their season.

Strongest Defensive Trends

New Orleans, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – New Orleans has struggled to contain increasingly confident shots by their opponents, presenting a significant defensive challenge.
Northwestern St, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – The Northwestern St defense has been stifling opponents with steadily improving opposition shooting struggles.
Northwestern St, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Northwestern St has implemented an aggressive box-out scheme, allowing them to consistently outrebound opponents and gain control of key possessions on the board by limiting their scoring opportunities through a defensive rebounding strategy that proves particularly effective in securing rebounds around the rim.
McNeese, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – McNeese’s struggles in securing defensive rebounds consistently limit their control over possessions and create opportunities for opponents’ scoring chances, thereby negatively impacting their overall performance.
SE Louisiana, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – SE Louisiana’s stifling defense poses a significant challenge as it renders the team unable to find open shots and scoring opportunities, forcing them to struggle with their offense moving forward.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Incarnate Word, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC, UT Rio Grande
Trending Down (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, McNeese, New Orleans, Nicholls, Northwestern St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 11-19 | Elo: 1352.2 (ranked 338 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.33 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Incarnate Word

Record: 12-18 | Elo: 1373.6 (ranked 323 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.59 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Lamar

Record: 12-18 | Elo: 1408.1 (ranked 299 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.75 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

McNeese

Record: 25-5 | Elo: 1679.0 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.25 (ranked 111 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

New Orleans

Record: 14-16 | Elo: 1412.6 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.21 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Nicholls

Record: 13-17 | Elo: 1468.0 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.95 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Northwestern St

Record: 10-20 | Elo: 1387.7 (ranked 316 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.33 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

SE Louisiana

Record: 8-22 | Elo: 1367.0 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.49 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SF Austin

Record: 26-4 | Elo: 1599.2 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.47 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 16-14 | Elo: 1482.8 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.58 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1324.0 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.77 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 17-13 | Elo: 1473.0 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.17 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southland Teams Show Signs of Improvement and Decline in Key Areas

As the Southland conference continues its regular season, a closer look at the key trends reveals both positive and negative developments for teams.

On offense, two teams are experiencing downturns in their shooting percentages. Incarnate Word’s shooting percentage has declined significantly, posing a problem for the team. Houston Baptist is also struggling with a decline in its shooting percentage, which will require adjustments from the coaching staff to get back on track.

On defense, several teams are showing signs of improvement. McNeese’s defensive rebounding percentage is trending up strongly, allowing the team to potentially gain an advantage in this area. New Orleans has seen its opponents’ shooting percentages decline, indicating a strengthening defense. Northwestern St’s defensive rebounding percentage is neutral, neither improving nor declining.

The MACD momentum indicators provide valuable insights into each team’s trajectory, helping identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Specifically, the indicator measures the difference in the rate of change between the team’s shooting and rebounding percentages. The data will be used to inform further analysis of the Southland conference as the season unfolds.

These trends suggest that while some teams are struggling on offense, others are exceling on the defensive end of the court. The data will continue to be closely watched as the season progresses.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference