Sun Belt Update: Week 17

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

Ga Southern, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Georgia Southern’s persistent struggle to secure defensive rebounds on offense, often due to a lack of intensity and focus in transition defense, is a significant problem that undermines their overall performance by allowing opponents to capitalize on second-chance opportunities.
South Alabama, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.023 – South Alabama’s performance on defensive rebounds has been a significant problem, struggling to secure more than they’ve allowed, highlighting an area in need of improvement in their rebounding control.
Georgia State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Georgia State’s shooting struggles have led to a consistent inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities, resulting in increased fan frustration and a notable decline in their ability to convert shots into points.
Georgia State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.011 – Georgia State’s improvement in their forced fumble rate suggests a shift towards creating more turnovers through direct ball recovery, which has contributed to their overall improvement by reducing their reliance on opponents’ mistakes.
Louisiana, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Louisiana’s reduction in turnovers has led to a notable improvement in defensive efficiency, with a decrease in points allowed per game and an increase in opponent shooting percentage.

Strongest Defensive Trends

Ga Southern, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Opponents are struggling to shoot effectively, posing challenges for Ga Southern.
Ga Southern, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Georgia Southern’s improved defensive rebounding has stifled opponents, as evident in their enhanced ability to secure a higher proportion of defensive rebounds against teams like Coastal Carolina and Arkansas State.
Appalachian St, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Appalachian St has struggled to contain scoring chances off turnovers, a trend that has hindered their defensive performance over recent weeks.
Arkansas State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Arkansas State’s defensive performance has been strained by a notable struggle with opponent shooting, posing a challenge to their team’s success.
Appalachian St, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Appalachian St’s opponents have been struggling with inconsistent outside shooting, failing to capitalize on opportunities from beyond the three-point arc due in part to their own inability to maintain a consistent level of performance over time.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: February 23 – March 01, 2026
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas State, Ga Southern, South Alabama, Texas State, James Madison
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana, Troy

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.32 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Arkansas State

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1578.8 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.26 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

C. Carolina

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1487.3 (ranked 202 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.79 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Ga Southern

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1462.9 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.73 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Georgia State

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1379.0 (ranked 318 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.59 (ranked 283 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

James Madison

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1533.7 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.98 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Louisiana

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1412.4 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.37 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Marshall

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1535.1 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.64 (ranked 162 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Old Dominion

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1414.7 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.31 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

South Alabama

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1565.8 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.28 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Southern Miss

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1459.0 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.17 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Texas State

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1521.9 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.03 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Troy

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1589.0 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.16 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

UL Monroe

Record: 4-27 | Elo: 1241.1 (ranked 369 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.08 (ranked 348 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Sun Belt Teams’ Momentum Analysis

As the Sun Belt season reaches its climax, several teams are demonstrating intriguing momentum trends. Our analysis focuses on three key aspects: offense and defense, as well as turnover rates.

Offensive Trends

Georgia Southern’s offense has struggled with a declining Opp Shooting percentage (Season Avg). Similarly, Georgia State’s shooting percentage has worsened (Season Avg), indicating a decline in scoring prowess. Louisiana, however, has shown improvement in its turnover rates (Season Avg), which suggests better ball control and an increased ability to limit opponent possessions.

Defensive Trends

Appalachian State’s defense has strengthened significantly, with its Opp Shooting percentage trending upwards strongly (Season Avg). This indicates that opposing teams are experiencing difficulty in scoring against the Mountaineers. Arkansas State has bucked the trend by showing a decrease in Opp Shooting percentage (Season Avg), signifying an improvement on that front.

Meanwhile, Georgia Southern’s defense has seen its opponent shooting efficiency increase (Season Avg), indicating a decline in defensive performance.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference