Week 17 Bottom 10: The Biggest Upsets

March 2, 2026 0 By Neill White

Week 17: February 23 – March 02, 2026
This week saw 10 upsets shake up the landscape, with an average margin of victory of just 7.9 points. The action was incredibly competitive, featuring 5 games decided by 5 points or less and 2 blowouts (15+ points). The lowest-ranked team to secure a win was #324 Canisius.

These results highlight the parity in college basketball, where any team can win on any given night. Below is the countdown of the week’s most significant upsets based on our Upset Rating model.

#10: Winthrop @ Charleston So

Final Score: Charleston So 86, Winthrop 84
Date: February 26, 2026
Venue: Winthrop @ Charleston So
Favorite: Winthrop (Ranked #192)
Underdog: Charleston So (Ranked #247)
Predicted Score: Winthrop 87.6 – 76.1 (11.4 points)
Upset Rating: 15.3

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Winthrop had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
Two-point shooting: Charleston So 16-32 (50%), Winthrop 16-44 (36%)
Three-point shooting: Charleston So 14-37 (38%), Winthrop 10-27 (37%)

#9: Wake Forest @ Boston College

Final Score: Boston College 68, Wake Forest 67
Date: February 25, 2026
Venue: Wake Forest @ Boston College
Favorite: Wake Forest (Ranked #56)
Underdog: Boston College (Ranked #140)
Predicted Score: Wake Forest 77.7 – 68.6 (9.1 points)
Upset Rating: 15.6

Key Factors:

Two-point shooting: Boston College 18-30 (60%), Wake Forest 12-32 (38%)

#8: New Orleans @ SF Austin

Final Score: New Orleans 77, SF Austin 73
Date: February 23, 2026
Venue: New Orleans @ SF Austin
Favorite: SF Austin (Ranked #146)
Underdog: New Orleans (Ranked #264)
Predicted Score: SF Austin 77.2 – 67.7 (9.4 points)
Upset Rating: 16.6

Key Factors:

Two-point shooting: New Orleans 22-38 (58%), SF Austin 22-52 (42%)
Foul trouble: SF Austin had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
Three-point shooting: New Orleans 4-16 (25%), SF Austin 3-17 (18%)

#7: Washington St @ Pepperdine

Final Score: Pepperdine 88, Washington St 79
Date: February 28, 2026
Venue: Washington St @ Pepperdine
Favorite: Washington St (Ranked #163)
Underdog: Pepperdine (Ranked #286)
Predicted Score: Washington St 83.5 – 74.0 (9.5 points)
Upset Rating: 17.2

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Washington St had 3 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out
Rebounding: Pepperdine 38, Washington St 30 (8-rebound advantage)
Free throws: Pepperdine 21-24 (88%), Washington St 13-16 (81%)
Two-point shooting: Pepperdine 26-49 (53%), Washington St 18-38 (47%)

#6: Furman @ W Carolina

Final Score: W Carolina 86, Furman 67
Date: February 28, 2026
Venue: Furman @ W Carolina
Favorite: Furman (Ranked #198)
Underdog: W Carolina (Ranked #254)
Predicted Score: Furman 80.7 – 67.5 (13.2 points)
Upset Rating: 17.7

Key Factors:

Free throws: W Carolina 13-22 (59%), Furman 3-12 (25%)
Foul trouble: Furman had 3 players with 4+ fouls
Rebounding: W Carolina 36, Furman 24 (12-rebound advantage, 12 offensive)
Three-point shooting: W Carolina 9-23 (39%), Furman 6-17 (35%)

#5: UCF @ BYU

Final Score: UCF 97, BYU 84
Date: February 24, 2026
Venue: UCF @ BYU
Favorite: BYU (Ranked #25)
Underdog: UCF (Ranked #62)
Predicted Score: BYU 87.4 – 77.6 (9.8 points)
Upset Rating: 18.4

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: UCF 14-24 (58%), BYU 9-27 (33%)
Two-point shooting: UCF 22-40 (55%), BYU 20-44 (45%)

#4: Tennessee @ Missouri

Final Score: Missouri 73, Tennessee 69
Date: February 24, 2026
Venue: Tennessee @ Missouri
Favorite: Tennessee (Ranked #16)
Underdog: Missouri (Ranked #63)
Predicted Score: Tennessee 81.7 – 71.8 (10.0 points)
Upset Rating: 19.1

Key Factors:

Free throws: Missouri 17-22 (77%), Tennessee 8-14 (57%)
Two-point shooting: Missouri 22-38 (58%), Tennessee 20-39 (51%)
Turnovers: Tennessee 14, Missouri 8 (6-turnover disparity)
Three-point shooting: Missouri 4-17 (24%), Tennessee 7-24 (29%)

#3: Memphis @ ECU

Final Score: ECU 84, Memphis 68
Date: March 01, 2026
Venue: Memphis @ ECU
Favorite: Memphis (Ranked #127)
Underdog: ECU (Ranked #240)
Predicted Score: Memphis 84.4 – 72.9 (11.5 points)
Upset Rating: 19.5

Key Factors:

Foul trouble: Memphis had 3 players with 4+ fouls
Three-point shooting: ECU 9-18 (50%), Memphis 5-16 (31%)
Two-point shooting: ECU 21-38 (55%), Memphis 20-51 (39%)
Rebounding: ECU 36, Memphis 25 (11-rebound advantage)

#2: Ole Miss @ Auburn

Final Score: Ole Miss 85, Auburn 79
Date: February 28, 2026
Venue: Ole Miss @ Auburn
Favorite: Auburn (Ranked #44)
Underdog: Ole Miss (Ranked #91)
Predicted Score: Auburn 84.8 – 73.8 (11.0 points)
Upset Rating: 19.6

Key Factors:

Bench scoring: Ole Miss 28 points, Auburn 4 points (24-point advantage)
Three-point shooting: Ole Miss 10-25 (40%), Auburn 8-24 (33%)

#1: Merrimack @ Canisius

Final Score: Canisius 67, Merrimack 62
Date: February 27, 2026
Venue: Merrimack @ Canisius
Favorite: Merrimack (Ranked #159)
Underdog: Canisius (Ranked #324)
Predicted Score: Merrimack 78.0 – 64.0 (14.1 points)
Upset Rating: 29.7

Key Factors:

Three-point shooting: Canisius 7-13 (54%), Merrimack 6-27 (22%)
Foul trouble: Merrimack had 1 players with 4+ fouls, 1 fouled out

Week 17 Summary

Total Upsets: 10
Non-D1 Upsets: 0
D1 vs D1 Upsets: 10

College basketball witnessed a notable week, with 10 upsets that left their mark on the season. According to HoopSci’s metrics, the average margin of victory in these games was 7.9 points, indicating a mix of close and not-so-close contests.

Five games were decided by 5 points or less, showcasing the competitive nature of college basketball. The average margin of victory for these five games was just 1.4 points, highlighting their intense competitiveness. On the other end of the spectrum, two blowouts stood out, with margins of 15 points or more. This dichotomy highlights the unpredictability of each matchup.

Charleston So’s win over Winthrop (Upset Rating: 15.3) and Boston College’s victory over Wake Forest (Rating: 15.6) set the tone for a week filled with upsets, but it was notable that low-ranked teams struggled against higher-ranked opponents, as seen in New Orleans’ narrow wins. Canisius emerged as another upset story, securing a 5-point victory over Merrimack, which boasted an impressive Upset Rating of 29.7.

The trend of close games continued throughout the week, culminating in several nail-biting finishes that had fans on the edge of their seats. However, the blowouts did pose a problem for teams looking to build momentum, as they struggled to close out games decisively.

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