ACC Update: Week 18

ACC Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Florida State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.023 – Florida State’s shooting struggles, which have led to a mediocre 6-4 conference record within the ACC this season, continue to plague the team with inconsistent performance from their players marking a notable problem.
  2. Louisville, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Louisville’s improved shooting is contributing to their recent success on the court.
  3. Clemson, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Clemson’s struggles with securing rebounds are a problem contributing to their difficulties in maintaining possession and creating scoring opportunities.
  4. Duke, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Duke has seen a notable reduction in their turnover rate, allowing for more efficient ball movement and fewer mistakes during clutch situations.
  5. UNC, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – The Tar Heels’ struggles with turnovers, which have resulted in a 10-turnover-per-game average, underscore a pressing need for improvement in this area.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Clemson, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – Clemson’s defense has struggled to limit big plays, as evidenced by its inability to consistently force opponents into three-and-out situations on third down, allowing them to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  2. Louisville, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Louisville’s struggles in containing opponents’ offense are largely due to its own defensive woes, specifically a worsening trend of conceding an increasing number of shots made per game from beyond the arc by its opponents.
  3. NC State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – NC State’s defense has struggled to contain opponents, stifling their scoring ability over several games this season due to an inability to effectively limit their shots.
  4. Georgia Tech, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Georgia Tech’s opponent shooting, a trend that has been trending negatively, poses a significant challenge as it hinders their ability to compete effectively against conference opponents and establish a consistent scoring presence in these crucial matches.
  5. Miami, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – Miami’s defense, known for its stifling presence on the field, has been struggling to shut down opposing teams’ scoring abilities effectively, which indicates a concerning problem that may affect their ability to stop offenses.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1424.7 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.73 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Cal

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1544.8 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.89 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1676.8 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.69 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Duke

Record: 29-2 | Elo: 1850.9 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +45.32 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1563.6 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.00 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Georgia Tech

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1429.0 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.02 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1666.8 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.72 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Miami

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1596.7 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.91 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

NC State

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1575.0 (ranked 93 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.82 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Notre Dame

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1460.5 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.48 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Pitt

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1491.6 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.19 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

SMU

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1584.3 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.71 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Stanford

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1588.5 (ranked 82 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.89 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Syracuse

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1502.7 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.84 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1704.7 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.35 (ranked 21 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

UVA

Record: 27-4 | Elo: 1697.3 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.61 (ranked 11 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Virginia Tech

Record: 19-12 | Elo: 1560.1 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.64 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1559.3 (ranked 108 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.74 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 18 ACC Wrap-Up: Key Trends to Watch

As the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) continues its season, several teams are exhibiting notable trends that could impact their standing in the league. Analyzing these key metrics will provide valuable insights into which teams are genuinely improving and those struggling with unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends

Clemson’s offensive rebounding percentage has declined to 0.255, indicating a struggle to secure second-chance opportunities.
Duke has seen an improvement in turnover rate, suggesting better ball management.
Florida State has demonstrated a significant upward trend in shooting percentage, highlighting improved efficiency from the field for this team.
Louisville has also shown a notable increase in shooting percentage.

Defensive Trends

Clemson’s defensive performance has worsened, as opponents are struggling against their defense.
Georgia Tech and Louisville are experiencing an uptick in opponents’ shooting rates, indicating potential weaknesses on their defenses.
Florida State’s shooting percentage has improved significantly.

These trends will be crucial to monitor as the ACC season unfolds. It is essential for teams to address their weaknesses and maintain momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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