Big 12 Update: Week 18

Big 12 Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Iowa State, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.027 – Iowa State’s shooting struggles have led to stagnation on offense, causing frustration for coaches and players alike, as they continue to search for a solution amidst their overall scoring woes.
  2. Kansas State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Kansas State struggles with securing defensive rebounds, contributing to their inconsistent overall performance.
  3. Kansas, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – Kansas’s improvement on the glass, specifically their rise in offensive rebounding percentage, is contributing to their increased ability to secure rebounds after a missed shot and leading to enhanced scoring opportunities through second-chance possessions.
  4. Kansas, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Kansas’s shooting performance has been a significant struggle this season, indicating a problem with their ability to convert shots into points.
  5. Iowa State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Iowa State’s decrease in Turnovers has been a struggle, negatively impacting their performance on both offense and defense as they attempt to overcome this trend marked as NEGATIVE in the context.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Baylor, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.024 – Baylor’s defensive struggles have been reflected in its inability to effectively contain opponents’ scoring attacks, resulting in a noticeable problem stifling their offense.
  2. Iowa State, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – Iowa State’s defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, with teams averaging 425 passing yards per game against them this season due to a lack of consistency in defensive strategy and execution.
  3. Oklahoma State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – Oklahoma State’s inability to generate turnovers poses a significant challenge for the team, potentially compromising its chances of success due to an otherwise struggling trend in this key area.
  4. Texas Tech, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Texas Tech’s defensive strategy has faltered, struggling to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities and unable to capitalize on generated turnovers.
  5. TCU, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – TCU’s defense has struggled to limit its opponents’ ability to create turnovers, a significant issue that warrants concern from the coaching staff as it could have far-reaching implications for their overall defensive strategy.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 29-2 | Elo: 1814.8 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.56 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Arizona State

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1541.8 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.20 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

BYU

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1675.5 (ranked 34 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.07 (ranked 27 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Baylor

Record: 15-15 | Elo: 1589.8 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.20 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Cincinnati

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1590.7 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.09 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Colorado

Record: 17-14 | Elo: 1554.0 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.13 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Houston

Record: 26-5 | Elo: 1818.2 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.86 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Iowa State

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1729.9 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.89 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Kansas

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1701.8 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.48 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Kansas State

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1492.8 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.79 (ranked 114 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Oklahoma State

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1559.7 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.97 (ranked 101 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

TCU

Record: 21-10 | Elo: 1636.9 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.68 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Texas Tech

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1718.1 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.61 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UCF

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1606.4 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.21 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Utah

Record: 10-21 | Elo: 1448.2 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.11 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

West Virginia

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1569.0 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.73 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big 12 Review: Key Trends Emerging

As the Big 12 season continues, several teams are exhibiting notable trends that warrant attention. This analysis focuses on key offensive and defensive metrics, highlighting areas where teams are improving or declining.

Offensive Trends

  1. Iowa State’s shooting percentage has trended upward to 0.56.
  2. Kansas is experiencing a struggle in maintaining its shooting percentage, down from an average of 0.53.

Defensive Trends

  1. Baylor’s defense is facing challenges as opponents are trending upward in terms of shooting percentage up to 0.53.
  2. Iowa State’s defensive performance has been struggling, as their opponents are trending upward in terms of shooting percentage up to 0.5.
  3. Oklahoma State is facing challenges in forcing turnovers from its opponents.

Turnover Trends

  1. TCU has seen a trend of increasing turnover production against its opponents.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12
TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference

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