Big East Update: Week 18

Big East Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Georgetown, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Georgetown’s struggles to capitalize on second-chance opportunities are evident in their overall performance issues, which stem from difficulties in converting these chances into scoring opportunities.
  2. Butler, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Butler’s persistent struggles with converting on shots have been a significant problem for their offense, contributing to their overall struggles on the court.
  3. Creighton, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Creighton’s shooting struggles continue to hinder their ability to capitalize on high-percentage inside shots, leading to inefficient offense in the paint as they settle for increasingly difficult outside attempts.
  4. DePaul, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – DePaul’s inconsistent shooting has been a nagging issue, stifling their offense and hindering their overall performance this season.
  5. Georgetown, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – Georgetown’s struggle with costly turnovers significantly hampers their ability to perform effectively on the court, stifling their offense and limiting scoring opportunities throughout Week 18 of the Big East conference.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Marquette, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.026 – Marquette’s defense has struggled to contain opponents’ shooting efficiency, which appears to be growing with each game as evidenced by their improved accuracy against the team.
  2. Creighton, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Creighton’s marked improvement in defensive rebounding has allowed them to more consistently secure boards, which in turn enables their stifling defense on both ends of the court by limiting opponents’ second-chance scoring opportunities and preventing momentum-shifting rebounds.
  3. Georgetown, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Georgetown’s defense struggles to secure defensive rebounds, a critical issue that allows opponents to capitalize on second-chance scoring opportunities and exacerbates their existing problem of allowing second-chance scoring.
  4. Marquette, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – The Golden Eagles’ inability to corral defensive rebounds has become a significant concern, allowing opponents to exert control over the boards.
  5. Marquette, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.008 – Marquette’s defense is struggling to contain opponents, forcing an average of 8 turnovers per game due to their ineffective pressing strategy.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1517.8 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.39 (ranked 70 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Creighton

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1586.5 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.66 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

DePaul

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1481.0 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.27 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Georgetown

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1479.8 (ranked 213 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.21 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Marquette

Record: 12-19 | Elo: 1555.8 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.68 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Providence

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1496.3 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.17 (ranked 49 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Seton Hall

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1554.5 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.95 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

St John’s

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1763.8 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.00 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

UConn

Record: 27-4 | Elo: 1775.8 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +32.64 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Villanova

Record: 24-7 | Elo: 1679.8 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.94 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Xavier

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1529.6 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.75 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Big East Wrap-Up: Trends to Watch

As the Big East season continues, several teams have exhibited notable trends that could impact their performance moving forward. This analysis will examine the most significant changes in offense and defense for each team.

Butler’s Shooting Woes
Butler has seen a decline in shooting percentages, with this trend indicating issues with scoring. To improve their overall performance, they need to address this problem.

Creighton’s Defensive Efforts
While Creighton’s shooting percentages have decreased, the team has shown improvement in defensive rebounding. By securing more boards and limiting second-chance opportunities for opponents, Creighton is taking steps to strengthen its defense.

Georgetown’s Defensive Rebounding Improvement
On the defensive side, Georgetown is experiencing difficulties rebounding against opponents. However, despite this trend being marked as negative, it’s worth noting that the team’s defensive rebounding percentage has been improving, indicating a potential area of growth.

Marquette’s Defensive Improvements
Marquette is showing signs of improvement on defense, particularly in terms of forcing turnovers and limiting opponent shooting percentages. These efforts will be crucial in determining the team’s success moving forward.

DePaul’s Struggling Offense
DePaul is another team experiencing difficulties on offense, with shooting percentages trending downward. This trend strongly indicates a problem with their overall performance moving forward.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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