MEAC Update: Week 18

MEAC Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Howard, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.03 – Howard’s performance has become more efficient, directly contributing to their increased scoring capabilities.
  2. MD-E Shore, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – The Maryland-Eastern Shore Retrievers are struggling significantly with rebounding and converting opportunities into points, which is a notable issue contributing to their poor scoring output, a consequence of their low Offensive Rebound Percentage ranking.
  3. Delaware State, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – Delaware State’s inability to secure rebounds on the glass poses a significant problem for their overall performance, as they have struggled with an off-rebound percentage below par in recent matchups.
  4. MD-E Shore, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.014 – MD-E Shore’s turnover issues are a major problem, causing them to struggle with efficiency on offense.
  5. Morgan State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Morgan State’s persistent inability to manage turnovers has contributed significantly to their poor performance in preliminary games, an issue that remains a concern despite recent efforts to improve this trend affecting their execution and overall team efficiency.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Morgan State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Morgan State’s defense has become a significant problem for opponents, stifling their ability to score and posing a challenge they struggle to overcome.
  2. Coppin State, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.02 – Coppin State’s defense has been a problem for opponents, limiting them to few scoring chances as they struggle to create quality opportunities against the team.
  3. Coppin State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.017 – Coppin State’s stifling defensive rebounding has enabled them to better coordinate their defense and offense, leading to more cohesive basketball play.
  4. Norfolk State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Norfolk State’s struggles on defensive rebounding are evident in their inability to consistently hold onto crucial defensive rebounds, allowing opponents to capitalize and gain a significant advantage, which poses a challenge for the team.
  5. NC Central, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.01 – NC Central’s strategy of putting pressure on its opponents has led to a notable problem, forcing turnovers at an alarming rate in recent games against MEAC foes.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MEAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Coppin State

Record: 7-24 | Elo: 1289.2 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -31.86 (ranked 361 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Delaware State

Record: 7-22 | Elo: 1311.8 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -29.85 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Howard

Record: 20-10 | Elo: 1501.0 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.18 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

MD-E Shore

Record: 9-22 | Elo: 1292.4 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.12 (ranked 330 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Morgan State

Record: 14-15 | Elo: 1409.4 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.41 (ranked 350 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 194 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

NC Central

Record: 12-17 | Elo: 1386.7 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.68 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Norfolk State

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1480.9 (ranked 211 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.54 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

S Carolina St

Record: 8-21 | Elo: 1391.0 (ranked 309 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -29.72 (ranked 358 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MEAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Week 18 Recap: Key Trends in the MEAC

As the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) continues its season, we analyzed key offensive and defensive trends to identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those experiencing unsustainable momentum. Our focus is on the data-driven metrics that reveal meaningful changes in team performance.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

  1. Delaware State’s Struggles with Rebounding: Delaware State’s Off Reb Pct has been trending down, indicating a decline in their ability to secure rebounds offensively (Season Avg: 0.252). This worsens the team’s overall performance.
  2. Howard’s Improved Shooting: In contrast, Howard is showing an upward trend in shooting percentage, with a strong increase in their shooting value (Season Avg: 0.51), which is a positive development for the team.
  3. MD-E Shore’s Struggles with Turnovers and Rebounding: MD-E Shore is experiencing both positive and negative trends. Their turnovers have been increasing strongly (Season Avg: 0.22), while their ability to secure rebounds offensively has worsened, indicating a significant decline.

Defensive Trends to Highlight:

  1. Coppin State’s Defensive Improvements: Coppin State is showing a strong downward trend in Opp Shooting percentage, indicating an improvement in their defensive performance (Season Avg: 0.55), which enhances the team’s overall standing.
  2. Morgan State and Norfolk State’s Rebounding Prowess: Morgan State and Norfolk State are both trending up in Def Reb Pct, demonstrating improved rebounding abilities and increased defensive board grabs.

These trends provide valuable insights into the current state of each team within the MEAC. As we move forward, it will be essential to monitor these metrics for further analysis, as indicated by their MACD momentum indicators. Note that MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence, a technical indicator used in finance and trading.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMEAC
TagsMEAC Mid-Eastern Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

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