Mountain West Update: Week 18

Mountain West Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Boise State, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.025 – Boise State’s improvement in securing rebounds on offense may contribute to their overall performance this season, as a stronger ability to control the boards can provide a significant advantage in terms of possession and scoring opportunities.
  2. Air Force, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Air Force’s performance on the court is being compromised by its worsening ability to secure rebounds, which is a significant problem for their offense as it directly impacts their limited scoring opportunities and struggles with converting second-chance points.
  3. Boise State, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Boise State’s shooting has shown some improvement in effectiveness, coinciding with head coach Leon Rice’s emphasis on player movement and ball rotation.
  4. Air Force, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Air Force’s turnover struggles, a significant concern due to their negative trend in this area, are being directly impacted by an increase in turnovers, which has further eroded their overall performance issues this season.
  5. Boise State, Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.007 – Boise State’s mounting turnover struggles have put a strain on their offense, prompting the team to reevaluate its strategy and find ways to address scoring difficulties stemming from these mistakes.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Boise State, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Boise State’s struggle to allow opponents to grab more defensive rebounds, as indicated by their low ranking in Def Reb Pct, limits scoring opportunities and forces turnovers that create problems for opponents.
  2. Nevada, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Nevada’s defense has been a significant problem for opposing teams, struggling to capitalize on scoring opportunities against them as they’ve been stifled by Nevada’s strong defensive presence.
  3. Colorado State, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.014 – Colorado State has been struggling to secure crucial defensive rebounds, allowing opponents to capitalize on loose balls and gain an increased advantage in possessions.
  4. Boise State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Boise State’s defensive unit has been struggling to maintain pressure on its opponents, as evident in a [NEGATIVE] trend of decreased forced turnovers per game.
  5. Fresno State, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – Fresno State’s offense has struggled to maintain possession following successful third down conversions by their opponents.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mountain West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Air Force

Record: 3-28 | Elo: 1249.5 (ranked 368 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.87 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Boise State

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1661.9 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.09 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Colorado State

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1638.5 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.84 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Fresno State

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1413.2 (ranked 289 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.26 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Grand Canyon

Record: 19-11 | Elo: 1635.2 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.99 (ranked 76 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Nevada

Record: 20-11 | Elo: 1597.0 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.43 (ranked 95 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

New Mexico

Record: 22-9 | Elo: 1670.6 (ranked 36 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.89 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

San Diego State

Record: 20-9 | Elo: 1659.2 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.11 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

San Jose State

Record: 8-23 | Elo: 1377.6 (ranked 319 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.06 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNLV

Record: 16-15 | Elo: 1565.5 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.73 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Utah State

Record: 25-6 | Elo: 1719.3 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.44 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wyoming

Record: 18-13 | Elo: 1511.8 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.40 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mountain West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Mountain West Analysis: Week 18 Key Takeaways

As the Mountain West conference continues to heat up, we’ve analyzed the key trends from Week 18 to provide insight into the teams’ performances. The provided data reveals which teams are genuinely improving and which ones might be experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Air Force’s turnover rate has been trending downward, a concerning sign for the team as they struggle to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Boise State’s shooting percentage is up, but this improvement comes with an increase in turnovers per game. The Broncos may need to find a way to mitigate these errors if they want to sustain their momentum.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

Boise State’s defense has struggled with allowing too many offensive boards, with their defensive rebound percentage trending downward. This decline in defensive efficiency could impact the team’s overall performance down the stretch.

Colorado State’s inability to secure key rebounds is a concern for their defense, as they’ve seen an opponent’s offensive board rate trend upward.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMWC
TagsMountain West Mountain West Conference MWC

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