Northeast Update: Week 18

Northeast Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Stonehill, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.038 – Stonehill’s struggles with securing defensive rebounds are significantly impacting their chances of success and contributing to a decline in overall performance.
  2. Stonehill, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Stonehill’s turnover issue has hindered their ability to maintain possession and execute plays on offense effectively, contributing to a problem with efficient execution.
  3. Fair Dickinson, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Fair Dickinson’s persistent struggle to secure rebounds on offense severely hinders their overall performance, significantly hindering their ability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.
  4. Brooklyn, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.012 – Brooklyn’s free-throw shooting has shown improvement this season, contributing to their enhanced effectiveness on offense.
  5. Mercyhurst, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – The Mercyhurst team has been struggling with turnovers, but this problem appears to be contributing to their ability to manage possession more effectively, which in turn is having a positive impact on their overall performance as a well-oiled unit.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Fair Dickinson, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.028 – Fair Dickinson has successfully stifled opponents on their own end of the court, effectively dominating rebounds with improved defensive rebounding skills.
  2. Wagner, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.021 – Wagner’s defensive strategy appears to be struggling as their opponents are consistently shooting more three-point attempts against them, indicating a potential problem with their overall performance on the court.
  3. Fair Dickinson, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.018 – Fair Dickinson’s defense has been a persistent problem in containing opponents’ shooting throughout the season, particularly evident in their losses to St. John’s and Georgetown, where they struggled to limit the opposition’s three-point attempts.
  4. Cent Conn St, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – Cent Conn St’s defense has been struggling to force turnovers, indicating a concerning trend that may hinder their opponents’ ability to capitalize on mistakes.
  5. Wagner, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.01 – The Wagner defense is struggling to force turnovers, leading to an increase in their opponents’ scoring chances. This poses a significant challenge for the team’s ability to control the pace of games and execute their game plan effectively.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Northeast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brooklyn

Record: 23-10 | Elo: 1535.3 (ranked 135 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.47 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Cent Conn St

Record: 18-12 | Elo: 1522.0 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.45 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Chicago State

Record: 7-25 | Elo: 1301.0 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.70 (ranked 345 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Fair Dickinson

Record: 11-21 | Elo: 1358.1 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.59 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Le Moyne

Record: 15-17 | Elo: 1396.2 (ranked 303 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.09 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Mercyhurst

Record: 17-16 | Elo: 1459.6 (ranked 239 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.86 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

New Haven

Record: 14-17 | Elo: 1427.6 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.15 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

St Francis (PA)

Record: 7-24 | Elo: 1321.7 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.03 (ranked 354 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Stonehill

Record: 11-21 | Elo: 1368.8 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.04 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Wagner

Record: 12-16 | Elo: 1426.5 (ranked 271 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.34 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Northeast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Northeast Teams’ Key Trends in Week 18

As college basketball’s Northeast teams conclude their Week 18 season, we’ll analyze the key trends that have emerged through MACD analysis.

MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. In this context, it is used as a momentum indicator to identify changes in speed and direction of price movements over time. It calculates the difference between two moving averages, indicating potential buying or selling opportunities based on the divergence between them.

Offensive Trends to Watch:

  1. Fair Dickinson’s Shooting Improvement: The Knights’ shooting percentage has improved this season, marking a strengthening trend from a previous average.
  2. Stonehill’s Turnover Reduction: Stonehill has shown an impressive decrease in turnovers, with a downward trend in their turnover rate.

Improving Trends to Highlight:

  1. Cent Conn St’s Opponent Turnovers Decrease: The Bears’ opponents have seen a decline in turnovers this season, with a weakening trend in opponent turnover rate.
  2. Fair Dickinson’s Defensive Improvement: The Knights’ defense has improved significantly this season, with a strengthening rebounding percentage and a reduction in opponent shooting percentage.
  3. Stonehill’s Turnover Reduction: Stonehill has shown an impressive decrease in turnovers, with a downward trend in their turnover rate.

Declining Trends to Note:

  1. Brooklyn’s Turnover Issues: Brooklyn has struggled with turnovers this season, with a weakening trend in their turnover rate.
  2. Wagner’s Opponent Rebounding Struggle: Wagner’s opponents have seen an increase in rebounding percentage, making it harder for them to win.

These trends offer valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of each team. As we move forward, keep an eye on these emerging patterns to better understand how they’ll impact the teams’ success in the coming weeks.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryNEC
TagsNEC Northeast Northeast Conference

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