Ohio Valley Update: Week 18

Ohio Valley Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. SE Missouri St, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.022 – SE Missouri St struggles to secure rebounds on offense, resulting in poor scoring opportunities due to a 0.7 Off Reb Pct.
  2. SE Missouri St, Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – SE Missouri St’s shooting woes are severely impacting their offense, contributing to a noticeable decline in field goal percentage from last season as they struggle to find consistency on the court.
  3. SIUE, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – SIUE’s inability to secure rebounds on its own end, evident in its SIUE: Off Reb Pct struggles, contributes significantly to its overall defensive problems.
  4. Morehead State, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Morehead State’s inability to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities stems from their struggle with turnovers.
  5. SE Missouri St, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.007 – SE Missouri St’s struggles with turnovers appear to be decreasing, as they are losing possession less frequently, which is contributing to their overall performance. However, this trend coincides with a concerning decline in their free-throw shooting.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. SE Missouri St, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – SE Missouri St’s stifling defensive presence appears to be a key factor in their opponents’ struggles with maintaining consistent shooting form over time, leading to a notable trend of declining scoring efficiency in their matches.
  2. Tennessee St, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.019 – Tennessee State is struggling to contain opponents’ shooting, which has been consistently on target against them.
  3. UT Martin, Opp Turnovers, Up, Trend Strength: 0.013 – UT Martin’s emphasis on man-to-man defense, a trend that has been observed to lead to increased opponent turnovers, has resulted in a struggle with opponents holding onto possession, directly correlating with the team’s defensive capabilities.
  4. UT Martin, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – UT Martin’s defense struggles to contain opponents on the glass, causing problems that threaten their overall defensive approach.
  5. SE Missouri St, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.012 – The team’s inability to capitalize on turnovers has created a significant problem, as they frequently face opponents who struggle with taking care of the ball in a similar manner, resulting in limited scoring opportunities.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ohio Valley teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

E Illinois

Record: 12-20 | Elo: 1374.6 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.91 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Lindenwood

Record: 18-15 | Elo: 1435.5 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.78 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Little Rock

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1408.4 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.09 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Morehead State

Record: 20-13 | Elo: 1518.4 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.15 (ranked 280 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

SE Missouri St

Record: 20-13 | Elo: 1517.9 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.66 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

SIUE

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1495.3 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.37 (ranked 225 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Southern Indiana

Record: 7-23 | Elo: 1288.5 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.00 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Tenn Tech

Record: 13-18 | Elo: 1393.0 (ranked 305 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.39 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Tennessee St

Record: 23-9 | Elo: 1567.6 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.00 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UT Martin

Record: 22-11 | Elo: 1489.9 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.91 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

W Illinois

Record: 5-26 | Elo: 1264.9 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -35.40 (ranked 363 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ohio Valley teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Ohio Valley Analysis: Week 18 Recap

As the Ohio Valley teams wrap up their Week 18 season, our analysis sheds light on key trends that reveal genuine improvement versus unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Note

Morehead State’s turnover rate has seen a decline in trend strength, indicating a positive shift. With a strong performance in this area (0.17, Down), their improving metrics suggest a sustained advantage.

Defensive Trends to Highlight

SE Missouri State’s defensive performance is challenged by a worsening trend in opponent shooting percentage (0.49, Down). UT Martin’s defense has shown a strong upward trend in forcing turnovers from their opponents (0.183, Up), suggesting an improvement in their ability to disrupt opposing offenses.

Insights from MACD Momentum Indicator

The momentum indicator reveals that some teams are genuinely improving while others are experiencing short-lived gains. Our analysis highlights the importance of examining trend strength in addition to overall performance, as it can help identify teams that may be due for a correction.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryOVC
TagsOhio Valley Ohio Valley Conference OVC

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