Patriot League Update: Week 18

Patriot League Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Boston U, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.026 – Boston U’s shooting accuracy has improved, with a noticeable increase in made three-pointers, however, their overall offense remains hindered by struggles with free throw shooting, particularly evident in their inability to capitalize on trips to the line.
  2. Boston U, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – Boston U’s struggles to secure key rebounds have become a significant problem, as their inability to rebound has hindered their scoring efficiency in the Patriot League.
  3. Bucknell, Off Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Bucknell’s inability to secure defensive rebounds has been a longstanding problem, but their recent surge in securing offensive rebounds has mitigated this issue, allowing them to maintain possession and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
  4. American, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.013 – The American has struggled with their turnover margin, indicating a decline in unforced errors that are negatively impacting overall team performance.
  5. Colgate, Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.008 – Colgate has seen a significant decrease in opponent steals, which contributes to improved team dynamics by allowing for more fluid decision-making on the court.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. American, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.022 – The American team’s defense continues to be stifled by opponents’ shooting, a trend that has led to inconsistent performances and put pressure on the team’s offense to score more points.
  2. American, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.02 – The American team’s improved defensive rebounding rate has become a significant problem for their opponents, stifling their ability to regain possession and forcing them to rely solely on first-shot attempts.
  3. Boston U, Opp Shooting, Down, Trend Strength: -0.018 – Boston U struggles with containing its opponents’ offense due to their perimeter defense weakness, which opponents often exploit and take advantage of in terms of shooting efficiency.
  4. Boston U, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.016 – Boston U’s struggles in defensive rebounding have led to opponents gaining control and creating scoring opportunities.
  5. Boston U, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.009 – Boston U’s defense is struggling with turnovers, failing to capitalize on opponents’ mistakes and create turnovers a notable challenge for the team’s defensive strategy.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 16-16 | Elo: 1455.0 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.86 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Army

Record: 11-21 | Elo: 1354.7 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.55 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Boston U

Record: 17-16 | Elo: 1478.6 (ranked 216 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.48 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Bucknell

Record: 10-23 | Elo: 1386.6 (ranked 312 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.09 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up weakly 🔴.

Colgate

Record: 18-15 | Elo: 1486.2 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.91 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Holy Cross

Record: 11-22 | Elo: 1336.9 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.73 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Lafayette

Record: 11-20 | Elo: 1361.6 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.72 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Lehigh

Record: 17-16 | Elo: 1450.8 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.67 (ranked 251 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 12-20 | Elo: 1364.6 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.38 (ranked 289 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Navy

Record: 26-7 | Elo: 1574.3 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.90 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Patriot League Teams Show Varied Improvement in Week 18

As the Patriot League continues its season, several teams are demonstrating distinct trends that shed light on their performance. Focusing on key metrics reveals areas of improvement and decline.

American University is struggling with turnovers (Season Avg: 0.146), which is a trend that indicates a decrease in these errors. This downward trend can be seen as a problem for the team, potentially impacting their overall performance through reduced mistakes.

In contrast, Boston University’s shooting percentage has increased (not specified by what amount, but consistent with the Context), indicating a more effective offense. However, Bucknell is trending positively in terms of securing offensive rebounds, which bodes well for their ability to retain possession and generate scoring opportunities.

On defense, American University’s opponents are shooting at a lower percentage than the season average (Season Avg: 0.54), indicating strong defensive play. Conversely, Boston University is showing improvement on defense by reducing its opponent’s shooting percentage, although specific details about this trend are not provided in the Context.

These trends highlight areas of growth and concern for each team, providing insight into their strengths and weaknesses as they move forward in the season.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT
TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League

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