Southern Update: Week 18

Southern Update: Week 18

March 10, 2026 0 By Neill White

Strongest Offensive Trends

  1. Mercer, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.031 – Mercer’s struggle to secure rebounds on offense has hindered their potential for maintaining possession and creating scoring chances, but they have shown improvement in rebounding defensively, averaging a respectable number of defensive rebounds per game.
  2. Furman, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.03 – Furman struggles with converting scoring chances into goals, contributing to their issues with field goal percentage and subsequent droughts in scoring.
  3. Samford, Off Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.025 – Samford’s ongoing struggles to secure rebounds on offense stem from difficulties with their rebounding efforts contributing to the team’s inefficiency in securing second chances.
  4. Samford, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.021 – Samford’s shooting technique has been refining, contributing to a notable uptick in overall performance.
  5. Chattanooga, Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.019 – Chattanooga’s improvement in shooting has made their offense more predictable, ultimately limiting their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and finish games effectively.

Strongest Defensive Trends

  1. Mercer, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.024 – Mercer has struggled with defensive rebounding, as their Def Reb Pct continues to be a concern over recent weeks, failing to secure rebounds on defense.
  2. ETSU, Def Reb Pct, Down, Trend Strength: -0.017 – ETSU’s defense has struggled to corral defensive rebounds, allowing opponents to maintain possession after missed shots and capitalize on additional scoring opportunities.
  3. Furman, Opp Shooting, Up, Trend Strength: 0.016 – Furman’s defense has been struggling to contain opposing offenses, which suggests their inability to limit opponent shooting as a major problem despite some improvement in overall team statistics.
  4. Chattanooga, Opp Turnovers, Down, Trend Strength: -0.015 – Chattanooga’s defense has become increasingly ineffective at forcing turnovers due to its own inability to secure the ball from opposing teams, allowing them to maintain possession too easily.
  5. Furman, Def Reb Pct, Up, Trend Strength: 0.015 – Furman’s inability to secure crucial boards on both ends of the floor is stifling their control of key possessions, as a lack of defensive rebounding leads directly to Furman relinquishing valuable opportunities.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 13-19 | Elo: 1494.3 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.84 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

ETSU

Record: 23-10 | Elo: 1577.0 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.46 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Furman

Record: 21-12 | Elo: 1576.3 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.84 (ranked 199 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Mercer

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1502.8 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.23 (ranked 179 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Samford

Record: 18-14 | Elo: 1562.9 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.60 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

The Citadel

Record: 11-22 | Elo: 1322.1 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.65 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

UNCG

Record: 15-19 | Elo: 1488.1 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.53 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

VMI

Record: 4-26 | Elo: 1274.4 (ranked 364 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -28.06 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

W Carolina

Record: 15-16 | Elo: 1468.8 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.19 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down weakly 🟢.

Wofford

Record: 19-13 | Elo: 1525.7 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.03 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

Southern Teams’ Mid-Season Trends in College Basketball

As the Southern teams continue their season, we examine key offensive and defensive trends that may indicate which teams are genuinely improving or experiencing unsustainable momentum.

Offensive Trends to Watch

Chattanooga’s shooting has seen a notable improvement this season, with an increase of +28.6 in two-point field goal percentage. This trend is a clear indication that Chattanooga’s offense is gaining momentum. In contrast, Mercer’s performance on the offensive side shows signs of decline, particularly in their ability to secure offensive rebounds, with a downward trend from 34.2% to 32.8%. This decrease in off-rebounding percentage suggests that Mercer’s offense may be struggling to maintain its previous pace.

Furman also displays a declining trend in their off-rebounding percentage, dropping from 28.6% to 26.5%, which has been marked as “Trend: Down”. This could indicate that Furman’s offense is facing difficulties in securing key rebounds on offense. Samford, however, continues to show improvement on the offensive side, with a trend marked as “Up” in three-point shooting percentage.

Defensive Trends to Watch

In defensive trends, Chattanooga’s performance has been somewhat concerning, particularly in terms of opponent turnovers, which have increased from 12.2 per game to 14.5 per game. This trend is marked as “Trending Down”. With an increasing number of turnovers allowed, it seems that Chattanooga may be allowing more opportunities for their opponents. ETSU shows a decline in defensive rebounding percentage, dropping from 75% to 72%.

Furman’s defense has seen an uptick in opponent shooting efficiency, with a trend marked as “Up” and a season average of 44.5%. While this can be a sign of improvement on the other end, it also suggests that Furman may struggle to contain opponents’ scoring.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySOCON
TagsSOCON Southern Southern Conference

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