NCAA Tournament 2026: Efficiency Margin Trend Analysis
March 16, 2026How is each team trending heading into the tournament? Using adjusted efficiency margin MACD — a momentum indicator applied to each team’s rolling efficiency margin — we can identify which teams are peaking and which are fading at exactly the wrong time.
All Tournament Teams Ranked by Trend Strength
Ranked by MACD (momentum). Trend Rank = national standing among all 365 D-I teams.
| Rank | Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howard | #16 | +0.4 | +3.79 | 1/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 2 | UMBC | #16 | +6.4 | +3.26 | 3/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 3 | Saint Louis | #9 | +21.4 | +2.06 | 13/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 4 | South Florida | #11 | +16.7 | +1.90 | 14/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 5 | Pennsylvania | #14 | +1.6 | +1.88 | 16/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 6 | Nebraska | #4 | +27.8 | +1.74 | 20/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 7 | Miami | #7 | +22.0 | +1.70 | 21/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 8 | Virginia | #3 | +31.4 | +1.68 | 22/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 9 | Florida | #1 | +34.7 | +1.66 | 23/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 10 | Tennessee State | #15 | -4.0 | +1.51 | 27/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| 11 | Miami (OH) | #11 | +14.1 | +1.49 | 28/365 | UP ↑ |
| 12 | Arkansas | #4 | +24.6 | +1.35 | 32/365 | UP ↑ |
| 13 | Long Island University | #16 | -0.3 | +1.28 | 36/365 | UP ↑ |
| 14 | Hofstra | #13 | +11.8 | +1.23 | 39/365 | UP ↑ |
| 15 | Illinois | #3 | +33.2 | +1.16 | 44/365 | UP ↑ |
| 16 | Kennesaw State | #14 | +1.9 | +1.11 | 48/365 | UP ↑ |
| 17 | North Dakota State | #14 | +5.4 | +1.10 | 49/365 | UP ↑ |
| 18 | TCU | #9 | +17.3 | +1.09 | 51/365 | UP ↑ |
| 19 | Arizona | #1 | +37.0 | +1.00 | 63/365 | UP ↑ |
| 20 | Lehigh | #16 | -8.5 | +0.89 | 72/365 | UP ↑ |
| 21 | Akron | #12 | +18.3 | +0.81 | 86/365 | UP ↑ |
| 22 | SMU | #11 | +21.9 | +0.74 | 91/365 | UP ↑ |
| 23 | Michigan | #1 | +39.9 | +0.73 | 92/365 | UP ↑ |
| 24 | Wisconsin | #5 | +22.6 | +0.73 | 93/365 | UP ↑ |
| 25 | UCLA | #7 | +20.9 | +0.72 | 94/365 | UP ↑ |
| 26 | Santa Clara | #10 | +14.9 | +0.60 | 105/365 | UP ↑ |
| 27 | Texas Tech | #5 | +23.3 | +0.59 | 106/365 | UP ↑ |
| 28 | Northern Iowa | #12 | +13.1 | +0.55 | 113/365 | UP ↑ |
| 29 | Siena | #16 | +3.9 | +0.53 | 115/365 | UP ↑ |
| 30 | Vanderbilt | #5 | +27.6 | +0.49 | 121/365 | Flat → |
| 31 | NC State | #11 | +24.1 | +0.46 | 122/365 | Flat → |
| 32 | Furman | #15 | -3.0 | +0.46 | 123/365 | Flat → |
| 33 | Prairie View A&M | #16 | -19.3 | +0.44 | 126/365 | Flat → |
| 34 | Michigan State | #3 | +28.4 | +0.42 | 128/365 | Flat → |
| 35 | Texas A&M | #10 | +15.9 | +0.37 | 132/365 | Flat → |
| 36 | Villanova | #8 | +22.1 | +0.34 | 134/365 | Flat → |
| 37 | Idaho | #15 | -4.0 | +0.33 | 136/365 | Flat → |
| 38 | UConn | #2 | +32.3 | +0.28 | 140/365 | Flat → |
| 39 | Iowa | #9 | +25.9 | +0.27 | 141/365 | Flat → |
| 40 | Duke | #1 | +44.1 | +0.25 | 145/365 | Flat → |
| 41 | St. John’s | #5 | +29.7 | +0.19 | 153/365 | Flat → |
| 42 | UCF | #10 | +12.5 | +0.12 | 162/365 | Flat → |
| 43 | California Baptist | #13 | +0.2 | +0.08 | 167/365 | Flat → |
| 44 | Hawai’i | #13 | +4.4 | +0.06 | 170/365 | Flat → |
| 45 | Wright State | #14 | +2.7 | +0.05 | 171/365 | Flat → |
| 46 | Houston | #2 | +34.4 | +0.03 | 175/365 | Flat → |
| 47 | North Carolina | #6 | +25.1 | +0.01 | 180/365 | Flat → |
| 48 | Texas | #11 | +19.3 | -0.03 | 188/365 | Flat → |
| 49 | Queens University | #15 | -5.0 | -0.06 | 191/365 | Flat → |
| 50 | Utah State | #9 | +21.3 | -0.12 | 199/365 | Flat → |
| 51 | Ohio State | #8 | +22.7 | -0.16 | 203/365 | Flat → |
| 52 | Purdue | #2 | +32.4 | -0.20 | 207/365 | Flat → |
| 53 | Alabama | #4 | +26.1 | -0.25 | 216/365 | Flat → |
| 54 | Troy | #13 | +2.8 | -0.33 | 227/365 | Flat → |
| 55 | Iowa State | #2 | +31.4 | -0.35 | 231/365 | Flat → |
| 56 | Saint Mary’s | #7 | +23.2 | -0.44 | 239/365 | Flat → |
| 57 | Louisville | #6 | +30.5 | -0.49 | 244/365 | Flat → |
| 58 | VCU | #11 | +18.5 | -0.52 | 248/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 59 | High Point | #12 | +9.3 | -0.59 | 256/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 60 | Tennessee | #6 | +27.5 | -0.72 | 267/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 61 | Clemson | #8 | +23.0 | -0.93 | 292/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 62 | McNeese | #12 | +5.4 | -0.95 | 293/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 63 | Missouri | #10 | +12.4 | -0.98 | 296/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 64 | Georgia | #8 | +22.3 | -1.00 | 298/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 65 | Kansas | #4 | +24.4 | -1.11 | 307/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 66 | Kentucky | #7 | +22.6 | -1.15 | 310/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| 67 | BYU | #6 | +23.6 | -1.69 | 339/365 | STRONG DOWN ↓↓ |
| 68 | Gonzaga | #3 | +31.6 | -1.76 | 342/365 | STRONG DOWN ↓↓ |
Tuesday, March 17 — First Four
Midwest Region | #16 UMBC vs. #16 Howard
3:40 PM | Line: UMBC -1.5 | O/U: 139.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMBC | #16 | +6.4 | +3.26 | 3/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Howard | #16 | +0.4 | +3.79 | 1/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Betting suggestion: Both teams are among the hottest in the country — UMBC is strongly trending up (rank 3/365) and Howard is strongly trending up (rank 1/365). The trends don’t give a clear edge; this is a toss-up. Play the UMBC -1.5 only if you trust the talent gap.
West Region | #11 Texas vs. #11 NC State
6:15 PM | Line: NCSU -1.5 | O/U: 158.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | #11 | +19.3 | -0.03 | 188/365 | Flat → |
| NC State | #11 | +24.1 | +0.46 | 122/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: The trends are close (rank 122 vs. 188) and so is the line. This is effectively a pick-em — slight lean NCSU -1.5 based on the talent edge, but not a strong play.
Wednesday, March 18 — First Four
South Region | #16 Prairie View A&M vs. #16 Lehigh
3:40 PM | Line: LEH -3.5 | O/U: 142.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prairie View A&M | #16 | -19.3 | +0.44 | 126/365 | Flat → |
| Lehigh | #16 | -8.5 | +0.89 | 72/365 | UP ↑ |
Betting suggestion: LEH -3.5. The trends are similar for both teams (rank 72 vs. 126), so the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
Midwest Region | #11 Miami (OH) vs. #11 SMU
6:15 PM | Line: SMU -7.5 | O/U: 164.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) | #11 | +14.1 | +1.49 | 28/365 | UP ↑ |
| SMU | #11 | +21.9 | +0.74 | 91/365 | UP ↑ |
Betting suggestion: SMU -7.5. The trends are similar for both teams (rank 91 vs. 28), so the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
Thursday, March 19 — First Round
East Region | #9 TCU vs. #8 Ohio State
9:15 AM | Line: OSU -2.5 | O/U: 146.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | #9 | +17.3 | +1.09 | 51/365 | UP ↑ |
| Ohio State | #8 | +22.7 | -0.16 | 203/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: TCU — trending up (rank 51/365) vs. Ohio State (rank 203/365). 152-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: TCU +2.5. TCU is trending up (trend rank 51/365) while Ohio State — despite being favored by 2.5 — is trending flat (rank 203/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
South Region | #13 Troy vs. #4 Nebraska
9:40 AM | Line: NEB -12.5 | O/U: 137.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy | #13 | +2.8 | -0.33 | 227/365 | Flat → |
| Nebraska | #4 | +27.8 | +1.74 | 20/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Trend Edge: Nebraska — strongly trending up (rank 20/365) vs. Troy (rank 227/365). 207-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: NEB -12.5. Nebraska is strongly trending up (trend rank 20/365) while Troy is trending flat (rank 227/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Nebraska to cover the 12.5-point spread.
East Region | #11 South Florida vs. #6 Louisville
10:30 AM | Line: LOU -5.5 | O/U: 165.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | #11 | +16.7 | +1.90 | 14/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Louisville | #6 | +30.5 | -0.49 | 244/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: South Florida — strongly trending up (rank 14/365) vs. Louisville (rank 244/365). 230-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: South Florida +5.5. South Florida is strongly trending up (trend rank 14/365) while Louisville — despite being favored by 5.5 — is trending flat (rank 244/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
West Region | #12 High Point vs. #5 Wisconsin
10:50 AM | Line: WIS -9.5 | O/U: 164.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point | #12 | +9.3 | -0.59 | 256/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| Wisconsin | #5 | +22.6 | +0.73 | 93/365 | UP ↑ |
Trend Edge: Wisconsin — trending up (rank 93/365) vs. High Point (rank 256/365). 163-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: WIS -9.5. Wisconsin is trending up (trend rank 93/365) while High Point is trending down (rank 256/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Wisconsin to cover the 9.5-point spread.
East Region | #16 Siena vs. #1 Duke
11:50 AM | Line: DUKE -29.5 | O/U: 136.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | #16 | +3.9 | +0.53 | 115/365 | UP ↑ |
| Duke | #1 | +44.1 | +0.25 | 145/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: DUKE -29.5. The trends are similar for both teams, but a 29.5-point spread reflects a major talent gap. Barring an upset, lean with Duke to cover.
South Region | #12 McNeese vs. #5 Vanderbilt
12:15 PM | Line: VAN -11.5 | O/U: 150.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McNeese | #12 | +5.4 | -0.95 | 293/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| Vanderbilt | #5 | +27.6 | +0.49 | 121/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Vanderbilt — trending flat (rank 121/365) vs. McNeese (rank 293/365). 172-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: VAN -11.5. Vanderbilt is trending flat (trend rank 121/365) while McNeese is trending down (rank 293/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Vanderbilt to cover the 11.5-point spread.
East Region | #14 North Dakota State vs. #3 Michigan State
1:05 PM | Line: MSU -16.5 | O/U: 143.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | #14 | +5.4 | +1.10 | 49/365 | UP ↑ |
| Michigan State | #3 | +28.4 | +0.42 | 128/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: MSU -16.5. The trends are similar for both teams (rank 128 vs. 49), so the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
West Region | #13 Hawai’i vs. #4 Arkansas
1:25 PM | Line: ARK -15.5 | O/U: 160.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawai’i | #13 | +4.4 | +0.06 | 170/365 | Flat → |
| Arkansas | #4 | +24.6 | +1.35 | 32/365 | UP ↑ |
Trend Edge: Arkansas — trending up (rank 32/365) vs. Hawai’i (rank 170/365). 138-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: ARK -15.5. Arkansas has the better trend (rank 32 vs. 170) and is already the Vegas favorite. The momentum supports taking Arkansas to cover.
South Region | #11 VCU vs. #6 North Carolina
3:50 PM | Line: UNC -2.5 | O/U: 154.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | #11 | +18.5 | -0.52 | 248/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| North Carolina | #6 | +25.1 | +0.01 | 180/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: The trends are close (rank 180 vs. 248) and so is the line. This is effectively a pick-em — slight lean UNC -2.5 based on the talent edge, but not a strong play.
Midwest Region | TBD vs. #1 Michigan
4:10 PM
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michigan | #1 | +39.9 | +0.73 | 92/365 | UP ↑ |
West Region | TBD vs. #6 BYU
4:25 PM
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | — | — | — | — | — |
| BYU | #6 | +23.6 | -1.69 | 339/365 | STRONG DOWN ↓↓ |
South Region | #10 Texas A&M vs. #7 Saint Mary’s
4:35 PM | Line: SMC -3.5 | O/U: 147.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | #10 | +15.9 | +0.37 | 132/365 | Flat → |
| Saint Mary’s | #7 | +23.2 | -0.44 | 239/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Texas A&M — trending flat (rank 132/365) vs. Saint Mary’s (rank 239/365). 107-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Texas A&M +3.5. Texas A&M is outperforming its seed on the trend charts (rank 132/365 vs. Saint Mary’s’s rank 239/365). Consider the Texas A&M to cover as a 3.5-point underdog.
South Region | #14 Pennsylvania vs. #3 Illinois
6:25 PM | Line: ILL -24.5 | O/U: 150.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | #14 | +1.6 | +1.88 | 16/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Illinois | #3 | +33.2 | +1.16 | 44/365 | UP ↑ |
Betting suggestion: ILL -24.5. The trends are similar for both teams, but a 24.5-point spread reflects a major talent gap. Barring an upset, lean with Illinois to cover.
Midwest Region | #9 Saint Louis vs. #8 Georgia
6:45 PM | Line: UGA -2.5 | O/U: 169.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis | #9 | +21.4 | +2.06 | 13/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Georgia | #8 | +22.3 | -1.00 | 298/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: Saint Louis — strongly trending up (rank 13/365) vs. Georgia (rank 298/365). 285-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Saint Louis +2.5. Saint Louis is strongly trending up (trend rank 13/365) while Georgia — despite being favored by 2.5 — is trending down (rank 298/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
West Region | #14 Kennesaw State vs. #3 Gonzaga
7:00 PM | Line: GONZ -20.5 | O/U: 155.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | #14 | +1.9 | +1.11 | 48/365 | UP ↑ |
| Gonzaga | #3 | +31.6 | -1.76 | 342/365 | STRONG DOWN ↓↓ |
Trend Edge: Kennesaw State — trending up (rank 48/365) vs. Gonzaga (rank 342/365). 294-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Kennesaw State +20.5. Kennesaw State is trending up (trend rank 48/365) while Gonzaga — despite being favored by 20.5 — is strongly trending down (rank 342/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
South Region | #15 Idaho vs. #2 Houston
7:10 PM | Line: HOU -24.5 | O/U: 135.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | #15 | -4.0 | +0.33 | 136/365 | Flat → |
| Houston | #2 | +34.4 | +0.03 | 175/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: HOU -24.5. The trends are similar for both teams, but a 24.5-point spread reflects a major talent gap. Barring an upset, lean with Houston to cover.
Friday, March 20 — First Round
Midwest Region | #10 Santa Clara vs. #7 Kentucky
9:15 AM | Line: UK -3.5 | O/U: 160.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara | #10 | +14.9 | +0.60 | 105/365 | UP ↑ |
| Kentucky | #7 | +22.6 | -1.15 | 310/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: Santa Clara — trending up (rank 105/365) vs. Kentucky (rank 310/365). 205-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Santa Clara +3.5. Santa Clara is trending up (trend rank 105/365) while Kentucky — despite being favored by 3.5 — is trending down (rank 310/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
Midwest Region | #12 Akron vs. #5 Texas Tech
9:40 AM | Line: TTU -7.5 | O/U: 156.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | #12 | +18.3 | +0.81 | 86/365 | UP ↑ |
| Texas Tech | #5 | +23.3 | +0.59 | 106/365 | UP ↑ |
Betting suggestion: TTU -7.5. The trends are similar for both teams (rank 106 vs. 86), so the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
West Region | #16 Long Island University vs. #1 Arizona
10:35 AM | Line: ARIZ -31.5 | O/U: 152.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island University | #16 | -0.3 | +1.28 | 36/365 | UP ↑ |
| Arizona | #1 | +37.0 | +1.00 | 63/365 | UP ↑ |
Betting suggestion: ARIZ -31.5. The trends are similar for both teams, but a 31.5-point spread reflects a major talent gap. Barring an upset, lean with Arizona to cover.
Midwest Region | #14 Wright State vs. #3 Virginia
10:50 AM | Line: UVA -18.5 | O/U: 145.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wright State | #14 | +2.7 | +0.05 | 171/365 | Flat → |
| Virginia | #3 | +31.4 | +1.68 | 22/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Trend Edge: Virginia — strongly trending up (rank 22/365) vs. Wright State (rank 171/365). 149-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: UVA -18.5. Virginia has the better trend (rank 22 vs. 171) and is already the Vegas favorite. The momentum supports taking Virginia to cover.
Midwest Region | #15 Tennessee State vs. #2 Iowa State
11:50 AM | Line: ISU -25.5 | O/U: 148.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee State | #15 | -4.0 | +1.51 | 27/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
| Iowa State | #2 | +31.4 | -0.35 | 231/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Tennessee State — strongly trending up (rank 27/365) vs. Iowa State (rank 231/365). 204-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Tennessee State +25.5. Tennessee State is strongly trending up (trend rank 27/365) while Iowa State — despite being favored by 25.5 — is trending flat (rank 231/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
Midwest Region | #13 Hofstra vs. #4 Alabama
12:15 PM | Line: ALA -12.5 | O/U: 159.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | #13 | +11.8 | +1.23 | 39/365 | UP ↑ |
| Alabama | #4 | +26.1 | -0.25 | 216/365 | Flat → |
Trend Edge: Hofstra — trending up (rank 39/365) vs. Alabama (rank 216/365). 177-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: Hofstra +12.5. Hofstra is trending up (trend rank 39/365) while Alabama — despite being favored by 12.5 — is trending flat (rank 216/365). The efficiency trends strongly favor the underdog here.
West Region | #9 Utah State vs. #8 Villanova
1:10 PM | Line: USU -2.5 | O/U: 147.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State | #9 | +21.3 | -0.12 | 199/365 | Flat → |
| Villanova | #8 | +22.1 | +0.34 | 134/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: The trends are close (rank 199 vs. 134) and so is the line. This is effectively a pick-em — slight lean USU -2.5 based on the talent edge, but not a strong play.
Midwest Region | TBD vs. #6 Tennessee
1:25 PM
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tennessee | #6 | +27.5 | -0.72 | 267/365 | DOWN ↓ |
South Region | #9 Iowa vs. #8 Clemson
3:50 PM | Line: IOWA -2.5 | O/U: 129.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | #9 | +25.9 | +0.27 | 141/365 | Flat → |
| Clemson | #8 | +23.0 | -0.93 | 292/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: Iowa — trending flat (rank 141/365) vs. Clemson (rank 292/365). 151-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: IOWA -2.5. Iowa is trending flat (trend rank 141/365) while Clemson is trending down (rank 292/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Iowa to cover the 2.5-point spread.
East Region | #12 Northern Iowa vs. #5 St. John’s
4:10 PM | Line: SJU -10.5 | O/U: 131.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | #12 | +13.1 | +0.55 | 113/365 | UP ↑ |
| St. John’s | #5 | +29.7 | +0.19 | 153/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: SJU -10.5. The trends are similar for both teams (rank 153 vs. 113), so the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
East Region | #10 UCF vs. #7 UCLA
4:25 PM | Line: UCLA -6.5 | O/U: 152.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF | #10 | +12.5 | +0.12 | 162/365 | Flat → |
| UCLA | #7 | +20.9 | +0.72 | 94/365 | UP ↑ |
Betting suggestion: UCLA -6.5. The trends are similar for both teams (rank 94 vs. 162), so the spread likely reflects the talent gap accurately. Standard lean with the favorite.
West Region | #15 Queens University vs. #2 Purdue
4:35 PM | Line: PUR -24.5 | O/U: 162.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens University | #15 | -5.0 | -0.06 | 191/365 | Flat → |
| Purdue | #2 | +32.4 | -0.20 | 207/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: PUR -24.5. The trends are similar for both teams, but a 24.5-point spread reflects a major talent gap. Barring an upset, lean with Purdue to cover.
South Region | TBD vs. #1 Florida
6:25 PM
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBD | — | — | — | — | — |
| Florida | #1 | +34.7 | +1.66 | 23/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
East Region | #13 California Baptist vs. #4 Kansas
6:45 PM | Line: KU -14.5 | O/U: 137.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| California Baptist | #13 | +0.2 | +0.08 | 167/365 | Flat → |
| Kansas | #4 | +24.4 | -1.11 | 307/365 | DOWN ↓ |
Trend Edge: California Baptist — trending flat (rank 167/365) vs. Kansas (rank 307/365). 140-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: California Baptist +14.5. California Baptist is outperforming its seed on the trend charts (rank 167/365 vs. Kansas’s rank 307/365). Consider the California Baptist to cover as a 14.5-point underdog.
East Region | #15 Furman vs. #2 UConn
7:00 PM | Line: CONN -20.5 | O/U: 137.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Furman | #15 | -3.0 | +0.46 | 123/365 | Flat → |
| UConn | #2 | +32.3 | +0.28 | 140/365 | Flat → |
Betting suggestion: CONN -20.5. The trends are similar for both teams, but a 20.5-point spread reflects a major talent gap. Barring an upset, lean with UConn to cover.
West Region | #10 Missouri vs. #7 Miami
7:10 PM | Line: MIA -1.5 | O/U: 147.5
| Team | Seed | Adj. EM | MACD | Trend Rank | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri | #10 | +12.4 | -0.98 | 296/365 | DOWN ↓ |
| Miami | #7 | +22.0 | +1.70 | 21/365 | STRONG UP ↑↑ |
Trend Edge: Miami — strongly trending up (rank 21/365) vs. Missouri (rank 296/365). 275-rank gap.
Betting suggestion: MIA -1.5. Miami is strongly trending up (trend rank 21/365) while Missouri is trending down (rank 296/365). Vegas and the trends are in agreement — take Miami to cover the 1.5-point spread.
Analysis by HoopSci. Efficiency margin and trend data current as of March 16, 2026.
